| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress 18:31 - Sep 25 with 3428 views | yescomeon |
So based on Glyn1's "52 / 80 points relegation / promotion" thread [1] I put together some graphs. It wont fill the hole left by the Dav's stats shaped hole on here, but it's something.
This first plot shows the Swans cumulative points against games this season (black line w/ circles). The points per game projection based on the mean points totals for the champions (green), runner-up (blue), last play-off side (red) and last relegated side (magenta) are also given (solid lines). In addition to this the darker shaded areas of the corresponding colours indicated the average deviance from this mean for all champions, runners-up etc. across all Championship / Division 1 seasons going back to 1992/93 (where the current format was adopted). The lighter shaded area is defined by the maximum and minimum points totals for the champions, runners-up etc. going back to 1992/93. Finally the dashed black line is the points per game (p.p.g.) so far projected to the end of the season and the dot-dashed line is the p.p.g. projection based on the last 5 games.
The second image is much simpler, it's just the cumulative points total against games for the season so far (solid black line w/ circles) and the p.p.g. projection based on the whole season (dashed black line) and the last five games (dot-dashed line), along with the cumulative points total against games for past Swansea championship seasons (2008/09 - blue line, 2009/10 - red line, 2011/12  - green line).
The first graph should give us some idea of how we're doing with respect to past promoted / relegated / playoff sides, and the second should give us some idea how we're doing compared to past Swansea championship seasons (you get plots like this in football manager and I always liked them as it quickly tells the story of a season).
So after 9 games (still a bit early to tell how the season will go) the current p.p.g. ratio is not likely to get us a play-off place and would see us have a lower points total than any of our previous championship seasons. That said we've only played a small number of games and we've had a tough run recently.
I'll update these graphs as the games pass and when I get a minute.
[1] - https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/229861/the-52-points--8
[2] - https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/230063/what-are-we-miss [Post edited 28 Oct 2018 21:21]
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| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:17 - Sep 25 with 3298 views | airedale |
The only graph I like is the Graf Spee. |  | | |
| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 20:39 - Sep 29 with 3077 views | yescomeon |
Figures updated following matchday 10.
- In terms of points we're pretty much where we were at this stage the season we went up.
- We're pretty much bang on the points per game ratio to finish in the final play-off spot, 6th place. | |
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| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:23 - Oct 8 with 2957 views | yescomeon |
Updated after matchdays 11 and 12.
After the disappointing Ipswich result the projected end of season points total now drops to a 10th place finish with 65 points. The Swans lowest total for a championship season. | |
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| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:27 - Oct 28 with 2682 views | yescomeon |
Updated after matchdays 13, 14 & 15.
The two wins on the bounce get us back on track for a play-off finish. Based on our points per game so far this season we'd on average finish 5th if we keep it up. The two wins in a row hasn't quite brought our points per game for the last 5 matches back in line with the whole season points per game after our poor run of results. Not reaching the highs of our promotion season, but we should still be in the mix if things stay as they are (at least from a Swans perspective). | |
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| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 23:00 - Oct 28 with 2561 views | Loyal |
| Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:17 - Sep 25 by airedale |
The only graph I like is the Graf Spee. |
Steffi has a tidy clump mind. |  |
| Nolan sympathiser, clout expert, personal friend of Leigh Dineen, advocate and enforcer of porridge swallows.
The official inventor of the tit w@nk. | | Poll: | Who should be Swansea number 1 |
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