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Predictions revisited: 24th to 21st
Predictions revisited: 24th to 21st
Sunday, 31st May 2009 14:16

Over the next week, we look back at the predictions we made at the start of the season, with the teams we tipped for success, mediocrity and a relegation battle. We begin with the sides we tipped to finish 24th to 21st.

Pred Team Reality How
many
out?
21st Notts County 19th
2

What we said:
Of all the teams that battle it out year in year out in League Two, Notts County seem to be the one side who will always be down the bottom. It doesn't seem logical. You've got a side, stoked in history, got a great stadium for this level, seemingly no financial problems, and they end up competing down the bottom with sides who's income must be half what County get. They're not "big club" or anything like that, but without doubt they've been the biggest underachievers over the past few years, and we can't see anything troubling that this season.

The new signings have bags of potential. There is no debate about that. But many of them have gone from club to club to club, and heard supporters say that "if we can get the best out of ........." over and over again. When was the last player you saw at this level suddenly turn things around after a few seasons of underperforming? The new signings may well have potential, but that potential is also a potential to drag the club down. Signing one under performer is a luxury. Signing a few is a risk which could see them infect the rest of the squad with their lack of work ethic.

I know it'll upset a few of the messageboard traditionalists when we say that we don't think County will go down. The points deductions elsewhere will see to that, as will the problems of much worse sides. Add to that, the under performers I've slated above will have the occasional great day where it comes together. But the County cycle will continue, they'll survive, think everything will be much better next season, then sack the manager in about November 2009.


So what happened:
I must admit to a certain smugness at getting my prediction for Notts County spot on, given the hysterical reactions they've prompted down the years. Or at least I would have been had it not been for that surprise last day of the season win at Wycombe. I suppose in fairness, this one was fairly well received by the Meadow Lane Mafia with a vastly reduced number of knockers at Notts this time round.

But it's just yet another season of nothingness from Notts County. A season which never got started, never threatened to get going, and the best thing you could say about them over the season is that they were never in danger of getting relegated, but that was more to do with other sides around them rather than their own strengths.

Perhaps most worryingly for the Magpies was when their manager declared themselves to be two seasons behind Dale in terms of progress of the side, even more when put into context that our manager had a just a few months head start on his County equivalent.

Early Summer activity suggests a new wave of optimism in time for the 2009-10 season. Older heads have seen it all before.

22nd Accrington 16th 6

What we said:
You could argue that they were punching above their weight when they were in the Conference, but to follow that up with promotion to the Football League, and to remain here relatively untroubled on what must be the smallest income out of the whole 92 clubs is nothing short of miraculous and I don’t think anyone whether they be an Accy fan or not really appreciates what has happened at Accrington.

Looking at attendance figures from last season, Accrington were competing against sides where the majority of the clubs had double their average attendance, and the nearest side to them in terms of crowds had over 400 a game more than Stanley did. And it’s hardly the hotbed of commercial activity. They could very well be operating at a level of £5,000 per week less than any other club in this division.

So after all of the above tales of woe and hardship for the Stanley faithful, why is it that we’re tipping them for survival, albeit by the slenderest of margins? Well the Luton points punishment for a start and Chester’s ineptness. Accy will be capable of picking up wins from time to time as has been proved during their time in the FL.


So what happened:
Finishing in sixteenth place in the table is hardly the sort of finish that should be prompting a raid on the fizzy wine section at Tesco, but once again Accy have proved everyone wrong by maintaining their League status by what was in the end quite a comfortable margin.

And all this despite the lowest crowds in the League getting even smaller, their sponsor going bust during the season, and a TV documentary which had them looking like a glorified pub team week in week out. The comparative budget deficits Accy face that we referenced above might be nowhere close to those they actually face.

But whilst manager Coleman may have a take on reality similar with those wearing straight jackets and flying planes for the A Team, he keeps producing the goods at Accrington season in season out is nothing short of a miracle, and it is a fine job that seemingly goes unnoticed by anyone in the game, including his own supporters who had more than a grumble in his direction over the past season.

The horizon looks as bleak as ever for Accy, with the taxman sharpening his teeth over unpaid bills, but what would a season be for Accy without a hurdle or two to climb?

23rd Chester City 23rd 0

What we said:
There's something not right with Chester City as far as football clubs go. They are not a club which has the best interests of the supporters at heart. You could argue that there's a whole host of clubs that you could claim that about but with Chester, it just seems to be even further down the line to the extent that I don't believe there'll be a Chester City FC in five years time.

The club itself is in freefall with their second half of the 2007-8 season being the worst of any club in England. There were teams with points deductions who enjoyed a better second half of the season than Chester did, with as mentioned above just two wins from their final twenty six games of the season.

They've appointed a manager who if you were looking for the nicest thing to say about him is "lacking experience" and has never shown any sort of heart for the game. Make no mistake, had it not been for Luton Town's points deduction, we'd have had Chester to finish bottom. We're not overly confident that we've done the right thing in doing so anyway. But either way, they'll be playing Conference football in 2009-10.


So what happened:
It wasn't exactly out of the blue that we got this one spot on. Everything we said about Chester was proved right, even to the extent of the Chairman realising it and dispensing of Simon Davies to the dole / Gardening Leave / his old job long before Bury had celebrated their first promotion of the season.

Arguably, their season wasn't quite the disaster that we perhaps painted it out to be, and given all the circumstances that surround the Deva Stadium club, you could even stake a claim that a pyrrhic victory had been achieved in leaving it as late as they did before losing their League status.

But it's clutching straws at best to put a positive spin on relegation to the Conference, and coupled with relegation and the impending points deduction, it seems a matter of time before Chester go the same way as the only other side to have been relegated out of the League on two occasions.

24th Luton Town 24th 0

What we said:
The reality is that they'll need something in the region of eighty points if they want to survive this season, and that's the equivalent of automatic promotion form, and that's going to be just too much for them to claw back. You could argue that had there been a level playing field, where they started on zero points, then getting the eighty points for automatic promotion wouldn't have been an impossibility so survival will be achievable.

But the psychological effect of starting thirty points from safety is an absolute killer. The optimists can cross their fingers, but for so many, they'll have written the season off before its started, and despite whatever statements they can make to the press, they'll know deep down that its too big a mountain to climb and that lack of belief could be what kills them off. It's simply too big a task for Luton to stay up.


So what happened:
Well despite all the pleas to the media about the unfairness of it all, the points penalty proved to be too much for the Hatters to cope with and relegation came their way. We acknowledged in our original prediction that this was far from being a controversial choice in tipping Luton to finish bottom, but they did so with perhaps more ease than we could have expected.

Much was made of their double points deduction, especially as one of those points deductions came apparently through Luton themselves informing the authorities of their misdemeanour, but had they simply have faced the same penalty that was given to Bournemouth, Rotherham and Darlington, then they'd still have spending 2009-10 that it's not the Conference anymore and it is in fact the Blue Square Premier Division.

There's hope for Town, as the numbers that travelled to Wembley for their JPT victory suggests that they could come back all the stronger for this and their non league sojourn is a necessary step back to allow them to go two steps further.

Photo: Action Images



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