Predictions revisited: 24th to 21st Sunday, 31st May 2009 14:16
Over the next week, we look back at the predictions we made at the start of the season, with the teams we tipped for success, mediocrity and a relegation battle. We begin with the sides we tipped to finish 24th to 21st.
Pred |
Team |
Reality |
How
many
out? |
21st |
Notts County |
19th
|
2
|
What we said:
Of all the teams that battle it out year in
year out in League Two, Notts County seem to be the one side who
will always be down the bottom. It doesn't seem logical. You've
got a side, stoked in history, got a great stadium for this
level, seemingly no financial problems, and they end up
competing down the bottom with sides who's income must be half
what County get. They're not "big club" or anything like that,
but without doubt they've been the biggest underachievers over
the past few years, and we can't see anything troubling that
this season.
The new signings have bags of potential. There is no debate
about that. But many of them have gone from club to club to
club, and heard supporters say that "if we can get the best out
of ........." over and over again. When was the last player you
saw at this level suddenly turn things around after a few
seasons of underperforming? The new signings may well have
potential, but that potential is also a potential to drag the
club down. Signing one under performer is a luxury. Signing a
few is a risk which could see them infect the rest of the squad
with their lack of work ethic.
I know it'll upset
a few of the messageboard traditionalists when we say that we
don't think County will go down. The points deductions elsewhere
will see to that, as will the problems of much worse sides. Add
to that, the under performers I've slated above will have the
occasional great day where it comes together. But the County
cycle will continue, they'll survive, think everything will be
much better next season, then sack the manager in about November
2009.
|
So what happened:
I must
admit to a certain smugness at getting my prediction for Notts
County spot on, given the hysterical reactions they've prompted
down the years. Or at least I would have been had it not been for that surprise last day of the season win at Wycombe. I suppose in fairness, this one was fairly well
received by the Meadow Lane Mafia with a vastly reduced number
of knockers at Notts this time round.
But it's just yet
another season of nothingness from Notts County. A season which
never got started, never threatened to get going, and the best
thing you could say about them over the season is that they were
never in danger of getting relegated, but that was more to do
with other sides around them rather than their own strengths.
Perhaps most
worryingly for the Magpies was when their manager declared
themselves to be two seasons behind Dale in terms of progress of
the side, even more when put into context that our manager had a
just a few months head start on his County equivalent.
Early Summer
activity suggests a new wave of optimism in time for the 2009-10
season. Older heads have seen it all before.
|
22nd |
Accrington |
16th |
6 |
What we said:
You could argue that they were punching above
their weight when they were in the Conference, but to follow
that up with promotion to the Football League, and to remain
here relatively untroubled on what must be the smallest income
out of the whole 92 clubs is nothing short of miraculous and I
don’t think anyone whether they be an Accy fan or not really
appreciates what has happened at Accrington.
Looking at attendance figures from last season, Accrington were
competing against sides where the majority of the clubs had
double their average attendance, and the nearest side to them in
terms of crowds had over 400 a game more than Stanley did. And
it’s hardly the hotbed of commercial activity. They could very
well be operating at a level of £5,000 per week less than any
other club in this division.
So after all of the above tales of woe and hardship for the
Stanley faithful, why is it that we’re tipping them for
survival, albeit by the slenderest of margins? Well the Luton
points punishment for a start and Chester’s ineptness. Accy will
be capable of picking up wins from time to time as has been
proved during their time in the FL.
|
So what happened:
Finishing in sixteenth place in the table is
hardly the sort of finish that should be prompting a raid on the
fizzy wine section at Tesco, but once again Accy have proved
everyone wrong by maintaining their League status by what was in
the end quite a comfortable margin.
And all this
despite the lowest crowds in the League getting even smaller,
their sponsor going bust during the season, and a TV documentary
which had them looking like a glorified pub team week in week
out. The comparative budget deficits Accy face that we
referenced above might be nowhere close to those they actually
face.
But whilst manager
Coleman may have a take on reality similar with those wearing
straight jackets and flying planes for the A Team, he keeps
producing the goods at Accrington season in season out is
nothing short of a miracle, and it is a fine job that seemingly
goes unnoticed by anyone in the game, including his own
supporters who had more than a grumble in his direction over the
past season.
The horizon looks
as bleak as ever for Accy, with the taxman sharpening his teeth
over unpaid bills, but what would a season be for Accy without a
hurdle or two to climb?
|
23rd |
Chester City |
23rd |
0 |
What we said:
There's something not right with Chester City
as far as football clubs go. They are not a club which has the
best interests of the supporters at heart. You could argue that
there's a whole host of clubs that you could claim that about
but with Chester, it just seems to be even further down the line
to the extent that I don't believe there'll be a Chester City FC
in five years time.
The club itself is in freefall with their second half of the
2007-8 season being the worst of any club in England. There were
teams with points deductions who enjoyed a better second half of
the season than Chester did, with as mentioned above just two
wins from their final twenty six games of the season.
They've appointed a manager who if you were looking for the
nicest thing to say about him is "lacking experience" and has
never shown any sort of heart for the game. Make no mistake, had
it not been for Luton Town's points deduction, we'd have had
Chester to finish bottom. We're not overly confident that we've
done the right thing in doing so anyway. But either way, they'll
be playing Conference football in 2009-10.
|
So what happened:
It
wasn't exactly out of the blue that we got this one spot on.
Everything we said about Chester was proved right, even to the
extent of the Chairman realising it and dispensing of Simon
Davies to the dole / Gardening Leave / his old job long before
Bury had celebrated their first promotion of the season.
Arguably, their
season wasn't quite the disaster that we perhaps painted it out
to be, and given all the circumstances that surround the Deva
Stadium club, you could even stake a claim that a pyrrhic
victory had been achieved in leaving it as late as they did
before losing their League status.
But it's clutching
straws at best to put a positive spin on relegation to the
Conference, and coupled with relegation and the impending points
deduction, it seems a matter of time before Chester go the same
way as the only other side to have been relegated out of the
League on two occasions.
|
24th |
Luton Town |
24th |
0 |
What we said:
The reality is that they'll need something in
the region of eighty points if they want to survive this season,
and that's the equivalent of automatic promotion form, and
that's going to be just too much for them to claw back. You
could argue that had there been a level playing field, where
they started on zero points, then getting the eighty points for
automatic promotion wouldn't have been an impossibility so
survival will be achievable.
But the psychological effect of starting thirty points from
safety is an absolute killer. The optimists can cross their
fingers, but for so many, they'll have written the season off
before its started, and despite whatever statements they can
make to the press, they'll know deep down that its too big a
mountain to climb and that lack of belief could be what kills
them off. It's simply too big a task for Luton to stay up.
|
So what happened:
Well
despite all the pleas to the media about the unfairness of it
all, the points penalty proved to be too much for the Hatters to
cope with and relegation came their way. We acknowledged in our
original prediction that this was far from being a controversial
choice in tipping Luton to finish bottom, but they did so with
perhaps more ease than we could have expected.
Much was made of
their double points deduction, especially as one of those points
deductions came apparently through Luton themselves informing
the authorities of their misdemeanour, but had they simply have
faced the same penalty that was given to Bournemouth, Rotherham
and Darlington, then they'd still have spending 2009-10 that
it's not the Conference anymore and it is in fact the Blue
Square Premier Division.
There's hope for
Town, as the numbers that travelled to Wembley for their JPT
victory suggests that they could come back all the stronger for
this and their non league sojourn is a necessary step back to
allow them to go two steps further.
|
Photo: Action Images
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