There are some who will herald the departure of Luke Shaw as the start of a fire sale at Saints and claim it indicates the club has no ambition, I would say that it is part of a process that is in the blueprint of progressive football clubs.

Some supporters cannot get out of their head the notion that a succesful football club is one that hangs on to all its good players and spends big on new ones, of course that is a blueprint that works for teams like Manchester United, Chelsea and latterly Manchester City, but for most other teams its a way of running a football club that is unsustainable financially and in the case of some notable Leeds United and Portsmouth has lead to a financial meltdown that may take them decades to recover from.

The modern football club is now run far differently that it was a decade ago, dinosaurs like Harry Redknapp etc who believe that sports science is bunkum and that tactics can be plotted using the slat and pepper pots in a West ham cafe are now rare and more progressive thinking is to the fore.

That thinking states that every football club should know the true value of every player to the team and that when that player greatly exceeds that value in terms of what other teams are prepared to pay for him, then he should be sold, hopefully when the selling club has a replacement already in situ or at least lined up.

As has been suggested in various interviews on the official club website, Saints employ many people who pore over the performance data not only of our own players but of our transfer targets to ensure that we keep our performances at the optimum level.

Therefore Saints will know for each and every player what their worth is to the team, for a striker that means in simple terms goals scored and assists etc, but it will also cover passes and tackles made, that data will tell you season by season whether a player is improving or getting worse, whether his effort levels are increasing or decreasing. It will tell you whether that players goals effect matches and how many points will be won or dropped etc

It will give indications as to whether its time to move that player on and bring in his replacement.

That time has come for Luke Shaw, in simple terms we have a player who we can get £30 million plus for who is doing the a £10 million job, that being the case then perhaps its time to cash in, get a £10 million replacement and invest in other areas.

Some will say that if we hold on to him for a season or two his value will increase, it probably will slightly, but the stark reality is that it will only increase drastically by his improvement and he will only get that improvement by playing in a better team with better players and competing for trophies that will harden him and give him that edge.

Our staticians will have looked at Shaw's data, they will have looked at the variables, of course its not an exact science but they will have calculated how the team would have benefited if he had made 10% more tackles/passes/assists etc in terms of points, as well as calculating what the results would have been if he had been 10% worse.

It would probably have told us that if he had been 10% better then the point or two extra it might have won us would have had no difference on our league position, we were 8 points off of United we needed a big swing in order to catch them, it also would have told us that if we had had a full back performing to 90% of Shaw's level say, then it might have cost us two points and again that would have had no impact on our league position.

Again I reiterate football is not an exact science and as I have no access to the exact figures I can only give an overview of how it works and not what the results for Saints would have been.

I would hazard a guess though that our staticians would calculate that we we had a player who we could get £30 million for, doing the job that a player worth £10 million could do almost as well.

So in the simplest of terms it would make sense to cash in and get that £30 million and buy the £10 million pound fullback, Ok we would be two points a season down, but if we then invested that money elsewhere and improved other positions then the real result might be a points gain overall.

This is not of course my own theory, its a theory that is being used increasingly across Europe with some success and that is why we have seen some so called lesser clubs greatly exceed expectations and even win titles.Olympic Lyonnais are perhaps the best example of this, before the turn of the millenium they had never won a title, since then they have won 7 and are now well established in the French League and able to compete with the top clubs, the difference is they have been run as a business rather than had money thrown at them.

Full details of how the modern fooball club thinks can be found in the book "Soccernomics" anyone who has read this has their thinking on how a football club should be run completely changed and suddenly realises why the old way of thinking is out dated.

The Soccernomics way of thinking might rely heavily on statistics, but those statistics when aligned with good management will achieve results, data can help if used in the right way.

Of course most clubs dont apply Soccernomics to its full, but most are now starting to start along its path, one such club is Liverpool and the fact they are is no shock, John Henry the owner of Liverpool also owns the Boston Red Sox a team that hadn't won the World Series in years, Soccernomics has its roots in the theories of Billy Beane the general manager of the Oakland A's he implemented it with success and the Red Sox followed, it was only natural that Liverpool would as well, it has taken time but for the first time in a decade or more Liverpool have been genuine title challengers, one of Henry's first acts was to sell Torres for £45 million and buy Suarez at £17 million and Carroll at £35 million, given that Liverpool have recieved £15 million back on Carroll it has been a good bit of business.

Soccernomics has certain rules when it comes to transfers, here are some of them.

1. A new money wastes money on transfers dont let him

Use the wisdom of crowds.

In fairness Saints implemented this under Nicola Cortese, what the above means is that several heads are better than one, have a transfer committee and a clear way for the club rather than letting each new manager bring in who he wants, every 15 months you just repeat the process.

2. Several areas are overvalued
A. Stars of recent World Cups and European Championships
B. Certain nationalities
C. Older players
D. Centre forwards

3. Sell any player when another club offers a lot more than he is worth

4. Replace your best players before you sell them

These are just a few and Im sure many will think they are no brainers, they are ! but if you think about it, how many clubs actually follow these rules.

So selling Luke Shaw to Manchester United is actually not backward thinking by Saints, its actually the right thing to do as a club, it is the way stronger squads are built and from stronger squads come better results, yes in an ideal World we would have kept Shaw and still spent the money on improving the squad, but few clubs have that financial clout without seriously putting their financial stability in jeapordy, as i say Soccernomics puts into perspective what the buying and selling of a player can actually mean, if we think about it we were actually 23 points short of Champions League qualification last season, hanging on to Shaw would not bridge that gap next season, however selling him and investing wisely might bring us closer to Everton who finished 16 points ahead of us, what cost us last season was the overall strength in depth of the squad.

Of course our success next season depends on having the right manager in place and buying the right players, that is something that for all the data and statistics in the World you cant change, ultimately football is a hit and miss sport and it has to be realised and this is bourne out by looking at virtually any Premier league table over the past 6-7 years, that the team that finishes 8th one season can just as easily struggle against relegation the next, that is perhaps because that team relied on one or two players rather than being strong overall.

But I do feel that we do have a good manager in place and given that before we invest any of our income from the Premier league that Koeman has transfer income in the bank already this summer assuming Shaw does go of £40 - £50 million, I would say that far from being dark days for Saints, all of the teams who finished below us last season would be very envious not only of the transfer funds we have available but of the owners and management we are now putting in place.

Bringing Luke Shaw through the ranks was the first steps of Soccernomics, the second step is selling him for more than he is worth to us as a club, now we just have to implement the third step and that is using the money wisely.

Photo: Action Images

darthvader added 10:28 - Jun 27 Matt targett ready made replacement in a year or two will be as good or better I hear , hope to see him given a chance this season though if he's good enough he's old enough
3

BarnetSaint added 11:03 - Jun 27 And if he does well. The vultures will pounce Sorry but I can't share the optimism and feel we're incapable of holding on to any of our great young prospects. Hopefully I'll be proved wrong. If we still have chambers this time next year then maybe, just maybe.
0

stalbansaint added 11:08 - Jun 27 Our hearts would want all the best players to stay, and then add/develop more. This is not the real world. I do not agree with all Nick's points, but the overall message is true. We need to be in the driving seat for transfers (unlike where we were a few years ago). I suspect we will lose both Lovren and Lallana also. However, with Matt Targett to replace Shaw, two new centre backs, one midfielder, one quick wide man, and a new forward we will do well. I trust Koeman to develeop the club further than MoPo, although I thank MoPo for producing the best/most exciting side in living memort for me.

0

patred added 11:09 - Jun 27 Just making room for the next Luke Shaw to come through the 'sausage machine'
3

slynch added 11:10 - Jun 27 Completely agree Nick. My theory as I've said before, is sell your best and worst player and spend the money on 3 average players. Shaw is a good player but not when he is injured! Last season Saints would have have at least 6 more points if reasonable players were in place to cover for Lovren and Shaw when injured. Football is about a team and ideally there should be 15 or so players all of the same ability not stars and also-rans. Unfortunately, you can only have one manager; Poch was excellent, lets hope the new guy is too. (Hey! that's not true Saints have 2 Koemen managers now!) Anyway. If this transfer is true then Man U are panicking, they think that throwing silly money at a problem will solve it, and throwing it at whoever is flavour-of-the-month is even worse. Shaw is a good player but when he gets over the half way line his end result has been poorish? Whatever Saints got over 15mill was free money.

1

montecristo added 11:18 - Jun 27 Nonsense article, just how long did that take you to produce Nick. Do you really believe what you write?? And how will you justify the sale of Lovren, Chambers, Lallana, Rodriguez,jwp, why would they stay?? The Shaw sale is just the tip of the iceberg. We will be left with the academy and squad players. I am sure this is why Markus Liebherr bought the club. Really. Nottt

0

brady100 added 11:31 - Jun 27 30 million represents a good deal for us particularly for an 18 year old. Left backs don't win you games. The problem is the message it sends out to other teams looking at our players and the players themselves. More difficult to take given the news that Baines, Coleman and Barkley will all be retained by Everton next year while our squad has been weakened. As Nick says Shaw can be replaced with a third or less of that money, our biggest challenge will lie in replacing Lovren and Lallana.

0

nysaint added 11:55 - Jun 27 Truth is also that this sends a strong message to all the best future young stars that southampton has just about the best academy in the world.. The Harvard of football.. And that if you join us you will get the chance to walk into the top 4 teams on ridiculous money.. The facilities are amazing and the idea of investing big in that is the thing we should celebrate.. As we get bigger we will hold on to more and we will finance it without borrowing.. In the long run we will be as big as united.. They started out in similar fashion with youth ( buzby babes).

0

BaselSaint added 12:47 - Jun 27 Grossly inflated price - take the money, move on
2

bstokesaint added 13:00 - Jun 27 I'd argue that you actually believe everything that you've written Nick, but I did find it an interesting read none-the-less and I can easily believe some clubs follow this theory. I couldn't possibly comment if we were one of them. I think it's a great price for a player who's so young. I'm fed up with listening to the fans who moan about who's off next. The truth is I don't want anyone at this club who doesn't want to be here or to buy in to the club's future ambitions. If the players had any common sense they’d stick together, but they’ve had their heads turned by England training camps, agents and the media and some seem to have become so despondent by the departure of Poch that they have used this as their catalyst for departure, despite the fact we have improved our manager in the last two instances. As long as the new manager is any good, we maintain our current success with youth development and reinvest the transfer money wisely we’ll have another decent season. If Nick’s right and we do use socceromics maybe this time next year we’ll be wallowing in its success. We're in a transitionary period. Let's see where it takes us.

0

pintsizedsaint added 13:07 - Jun 27 Nick - agree with you 100% Getting really fed up with the negativity being posted by some Saints fans and the so-called journalists. The club is not in meltdown or wanting a fire-sale etc. It is being run properly as a 21st Century football club. Clearly we have valued Luke Shaw at way over his true value (hence a lot of realistic Man Utd fans amazed at what is happening) and Man Utd (and let's be clear here - they are not just bigger than Saints, but one of the elite foobtall clubs in the world) decided to take a punt. Man Utd's is the risker proposition - 30+ million for an 18-year old! It is a shame to lose such talent but it's not as if we have sold Shaw to a historical mid-level club for next to nothing. For me, it's another bit of great business to go with Lambert's 4 million transfer (don't get me wrong, I was gutted to see SRL leave too). Yet the final proof will be with who we replace Shaw with. Matt Targett is a genuine contender in the next 1-2 years. We are being linked with Timothee Kolo - whose scouting report highlighted that he is another genuine (and more proven) talent (who can also play at Centre Back). Add to that the fact that we replaced MoPo with (in my mind) an upgrade in Koeman (a manager who has won titles and managed big clubs) then I cannot see why people think Saints are being run badly! And we may well not sell Lallana and Lovren etc - but lets see what happens if we do. Clearly we will also say they cannot go unless people pay over the odds (Again, Les Reed has made that statement). Man Utd could do that - but can Liverpool? (certainly not Spurs). If they can, we can happily take their money and re-invest. Nobody is irreplaceable. Let's be clear: Saints aren't simply rolling over here: Utd would have had to thought long and hard over the Shaw price. They are the ones taking a big gamble. I suspect it will make Utd (and any other club) think carefully about approaching Saints in the future. If you cannot see that at the moment, you need to read up more about what a 21st Century Club (who is not in the elite category) needs to do. I, for one, am very happy with what Saints are trying to achieve.

4

Jesus_02 added 13:08 - Jun 27 Sorry Nick, correct conclusion , but the wrong reasoning! The majority of the football world knows about "Moneyball" and the buy low sell high theories that informed the strategy. However we simply don't need £30m to by a £10m player! more to the point a 10m player will probably command more wages than Shaw! What we do need is 2 left backs, and lets face it who would come to saints to sit on the bench behind Luke for 10 years. The Ideal situation is the one we have at RB and hopefully Luke leaving will free up game time for two competing LB's

2

SaintNick50 added 13:14 - Jun 27 Left backs don't win games: - 'brady100' perhaps you didn't ever see Garath Bale paying for Saints? £30m is good business only as long as we spend the money wisely. Our transfer transactions have been decidedly inconsistant lately. Alan Pardew was very good at getting value for money, I don't believe in the transfer committee. Koeman needs to hit the job running, why not get hold of some Dutch talent they seem to be able to cope with the World Cup ok!

0

densham41 added 13:26 - Jun 27 Montecristo , please please cheer up! After I read your post I started to walk towards the kitchen knife draw. Not sure if a knife or the bridge is the right way to go or you could right something positive and save me!
2

tiptop added 13:29 - Jun 27 If they want to leave what can you do? the best you which saints appear to hv done. I noticed coleman signed an extension at everton who are the level saints need to be punching at. Losing 3of our best players, finding decent replacements and maintaining 8th or higher will be a massive challenge
0

ChristchurchSaint added 13:36 - Jun 27 I agree with most of what Nick says. £30mill for a full back is a lot of money, even for one of Luke's class. I personally think it is a good deal. Luke is 18, not the finished article by any means, and we have seen many young players' heads turned by the starry eyed vision of playing for one of the "super-rich/big" clubs. Sadly I would not be surprised if Luke falls by the wayside in years to come, unless he is cared for and treated with "kid gloves." He would have developed much better under Alex Ferguson, but that will not now happen. From Saints point of view, we are not one of those elite clubs, and as such, this must represent a good piece of business. We will have money to buy a good replacement and spare cash to spend on other players.

1

Zambucco added 13:52 - Jun 27 Nick, over-long, rambling and repetitive, yet the core is the truth and inspiring. Football is big business and the best businesses are built from firm foundations, and we are doing this. I have total faith in my belief we will be one of the 'big' teams part of the elite, because of our philosophy and the academy. apparently based on possibly one of the biggest teams in the world's same philosophy Barcelona. They are not afraid of selling their best players, because it makes good business sense. They have a star that has risen from the ranks, they have cost very little, their wages are still modest, so the profit is immense. This is reinvested in the academy and in excellent replacements, as they are an attractive team to play for. Southampton are heading this way too, we have a brilliant crop of youngsters coming through at the moment 11 internationals? This will help attract so many more of the best youngsters to come here. They will not all play for the first team, but will attract big money. Those that do make the team, will attract even bigger money. This cash flow is what helps teams to grow, to build to establish. But this will not happen overnight, possibly 5 - 10 years, in this time we will see a steady rise in our positions in the Premiership, the standard of payer being attracted will grow too, so it will certainly not be boring, more like the most exciting time in Saints history. To lose a lot of our top stars in one close season would be detrimental, but I have a feeling that, it may just be limited to Lambert, Shaw, Lallana and Lovren. All replaceable, but we keep the core of a very tight squad and new additions will not take long to fit in. COYR!!!

3

BoondockSaint added 14:25 - Jun 27 Take the money! He's a really good young player, but there are no guarantees. If we force players to stay to the end of their contracts, we get little or nothing when they leave. Only one I worry about leaving is Lovern-he really settled us down at the back. If this deal goes through, it sends a message to other rich clubs: "If you want any of our players, you're going to pay top prices!"

0

law101 added 14:59 - Jun 27 SaintNick50 Bale and Shaw are completely different players, it was clear from the beginning Bale had that match winning quality and would play higher up the pitch. My worry is what players will be keen to join a club who is selling all their best players. Talk of us growing to be like Barcelona to me is absurd, modest wages? Messi is now earning £300,000 a week!! They have the infrastructure and fan base to be successful and retain their best talents, we must rely on selling and reinvesting. Its hard to take but its a reality we must get used to.

0

BLEEDRED added 16:36 - Jun 27 It's a big risk for Shaw he is still a very raw player his crossing and end ball still need work. As far as I know he does not drive yet, lived at home or in digs so the big world up north could have a few traps for him More worrying I have been in London for a few days and some media types up there seem to think it is a done deal that Schneiderlin will join the Arse for £15 mill as soon as he gets back. Spuds have bid £15 mill for Lovren but he wants to go to the Pool

0

thegeneral added 17:21 - Jun 27 Its all very well having money to spend but who other than average players would want to come here? We've gone from potential top six side to relegation fodder, not because Shaw has gone but because the boards attitude spreads like poison, Lambert gone (to full fill a dream, ffs), Lallana on his way, Lovren will go, Schneiderlein will see no point in staying, Wanyama will want away on broken promises (don't blame him) and the above piece means the right offer will secure Chambers. You can stick your socernomics up yer jacksie mate, we're back to making up the numbers. Best thing that can happen to this club is for a Cortese syndicate to come in and buy it. Disgusted, disappointed and not one of my hard earned pounds will be spent on southampton football club next season, we've never achieved anything and with this attitude never will.

-1

thegeneral added 17:25 - Jun 27 and just to add, with all these analysts working so hard how did we end up with Osvaldo, Forren, Mayuka and Lee?
-1

BoondockSaint added 18:39 - Jun 27 Those four were the product of Cortese's gift for spotting talent.
0

landsdownsaint added 18:45 - Jun 27 Ridiculous article ! Also we got nothing like the 30 million you state ,and selling Lambert for 4 million to fulfill his childhood dreams makes mugs of us .
0

montecristo added 19:40 - Jun 27 Densham I am just being realistic I dont see anything positive in the sale of our best players and nor will you when we struggle to stay up next season. Hopefully Liebherr will have gone by then and will have new owners who dont die on us and destroy five years optimism in a month. I dont believe Reed and nor should you he is a bald faced liar who is helping KL asset strip, what will his excuse be when we struggle to stay up next season

1

Blogs 31 bloggers

Rochdale Polls