Last season there was a lot of talk about Champions league qualification but ultimately we fell far short, but here we look at why we might just be able to do it this time out.

Saints went into this International break sitting proudly in 2nd with 25 points on the board, that sounds brilliant and indeed it is, but as it stands it isnn't that much better than at the same period last year when after the same 11 games we had 22 points and were 3rd.

Ostentatiously there doesn't seem a lot of difference between then and now, but the reality is far different for several reasons and that being the case we might just cause perhaps the biggest upset in Premier league history.

The first reason is the squad and manager, last year we were managed by a coach who had one plan and could not or would devaite from that unless forced to by injury, this meant that we never came from behind to win a game, the players played to their ability and that was that, we mainly beat the sides at the bottom at the table and results got progressively worse as we played sides higher up the table, although we were only 3 points worse off last year from the same number of games, move forward 6 games and we still only had 24 points, not as many as we have now.

We are better prepared to go into a tough run of games, the squad is stronger and we have options in all positions and more to the point we have a manager who can use that squad to the best of its ability, last season Pochettino just put out a team and told it how to play, if it worked fine, if it didn't then nothing would change, in effect Pochettino's job on a Saturday virtually ended once the team had left the dressing room.

Secondly is the League table itself, a look at last years table shows that although Saints were third all of the usual suspects were not far away, Arsenal & Liverpool were ahead of us, Chelsea were a point behind, Man Utd, Everton & Spurs 2 points and eventual winners Man City 3 points, indeed the top eight a year ago was exactly the same as it would finish, albeit in a different story.

The message is simple, last year everyone was on a fairly even keel, this year we are significantly ahead of those clubs who harbour the same aspirations of challenging for that Champions league qualifying spot.

But perhaps the biggest reason why we can kick on is money, last season we spent £36 million in the close season, the biggest signing Osvaldo was a complete waste of time come the second half of the season and the problem was there wasn't anymore money in the kitty for January, we had to make do with what we had and once the injuries and suspensions kicked in a thin squad got even thinner.

This year it could be different, in the summer we took in something in the region of £95 million pounds and so far we have spent £57 million plus potentially another £17 million should we make the signing of Alderweireld and Bertrand permanent, this of course means that we have £21 million left in the kitty.

But we could have more than that, as transfer sales has funded all of our incoming purchases we have not had to touch any of the £80 million we received from the Premier League & TV rights etc, put bluntly we possibly have more spending power in January than any of our rivals, unlike last year we have the option of boosting our squad.

This perhaps more than anything is what could give us the strength in depth to keep our rivals at bay when combined with the fact that so many of them are a long way behind.

If im realistic I don't expect us to overhaul Chelsea and I think that Manchester City and Arsenal do have a little more strength in depth to jump above us, although in the case of the latter it is a big gap to make up ie 8 points, with respect to Swansea and West ham we have a better squad and the spending power.

So that 4th place is very much up for grabs if we can keep Man Utd, Spurs, Liverpool & Everton at bay, given that the first club is 9 points behind us and the other three 11, the opportunity is very much there.

So the key to the season is very much the next six games, if we get 10 points or more out of them the impetus will be very much in our favour, it is important to win the two winnable away games at Villa & Burnley, if we do that and we can get four points out of the games against United and Everton at home then anything we get out of the other two is a bonus, if the above scenario was to happen then we would go into the Xmas period in a very good position. probably still second almost certainly 3rd.

That would encourage the board to spend in January to bolster our second half of the season.

So the signs are there that Saints could produce the biggest shock in Premier history and get in the Champions League and don't discount the failings of others in the equation, they have a big gap to make up that they didn't have to last season , every week we win games and keep moving forward makes the task of United, Spurs, Liverpool & Everton that much harder and if we can keep them at bay then 4th place is very very achievable

Photo: Action Images

Consigliere added 12:40 - Nov 13 Good article - but I think you mean "ostensibly" not "ostenatatiously"! Sorry to be a pedant.
1

Consigliere added 12:42 - Nov 13 Oops and I misspelt ostentatiously! Serves me right!
0

SaintNick added 13:01 - Nov 13 I know what I meant lol
0

Pulse added 13:20 - Nov 13 something to remember is who we had in goal over this period last year
0

nomorerumours added 14:13 - Nov 13 Spot on Nick. I think we could do rather better than 10 points from our next 6 games. 10 would almost certainly keep us in 2nd especially if we get 1 or even all 3 points against City. I agree that we must beat Villa and Burnley and any slip up in those games will have to be compensated for by winning several of big games during December. I think that 12 points is quite possible out of those 18 available. It would be great to have our home match against Chelsea on Dec 28th knowing that whatever happens we would end this year in 2nd. Could we even squeeze a point (or all 3!) out of them. It is possible that the 6 points up for grabs in our 2 matches with Chelsea (in December + March) might be the difference between 1st and 2nd by the end of the season! Unthinkable 3 months ago and still highly unlikely! Most of this happens before the January transfer window. We can ignore all the rumours about Morg and JayRod leaving, at least until next summer. As you say, we will strengthen our squad further and we are in the great position of really being able to attract some good players and might lead the EPL pack in this respect even though we will not spend more than £15m on any one player and long may that continue. I'm sure that we have a short list of 10+ primary targets and would look to buy 2 or 3 of them in January + perhaps, another loan deal or 2. 2nd place at the end of the season is still my prediction.

1

Chesham_Saint added 14:14 - Nov 13 Whilst I think Boruc was great for us he certainly cost us the game at arsenal when he tried his Cruyff turns for no good reason. The loss there seemed to trigger a poor run for us. Having said that, we were also doing very well at Chelsea until I think Wanayama got injured....
0

mac66 added 14:14 - Nov 13 the best way I think is to compare results with the same fixtures (baring the promoted teams ) as last year. For example last year we gained only One point from the two fixtures with West Ham , this year 3 from one, and Sunderland two points from two fixtures this year 3 from one. Already we have 4 points more with a possible 6 more from just these two teams. Last year after Christmas not only did we drop points against many of the so call big teams but also against sides that we should of beaten. The exciting thing is every so called big team is going to have take points from us to catch us,draw for us espically away against are rivals for Europe will be as good as a win.

0

Jesus_02 added 14:44 - Nov 13 I really enjoyed the way that we played last year, although we did become a little predictable and seem to give up the ghost towards the end. This time it just seems to feel different. There are a lot of if's and buts and Villa is not a forgone conclusion, however I think that we are going to spank City who have 4 games over the same period that we have 2 including Bayern. It will be interesting how we react to expectations then

0

REEDYREEDOREEDZ added 14:55 - Nov 13 The next four games are massive: Villa (a) Man City (h) Arsenal (a) Man Utd (h) We need to win at Villa, and then not lose any of the next three getting at least 5 points from those three games. That will keep us clear of the chasing pack. As things stand, I really fancy us to beat Man City at home. They're proper struggling and after the international break they play Swansea and Bayern Munich at home, both will be really tough games so they might not get out of their slump by the time they play us. Pellegrini might not even be in a job by the time they play us! Arsenal away will be the toughest one. They play away to West Brom early on the Saturday while we play City a day later on the Sunday, with the Arsenal game on the following Wednesday. So not much time for recovery. They'll put out a much stronger team than the one we dominated in the cup. They always finish top 4 so they're a massive rival.

0

BoondockSaint added 15:37 - Nov 13 We have good shot, and I will not accept the bilge from the media, such as "Robbie Mustoe Nothing" who claim that the reason the table is so shook up is that it is a drop off in the quality of football! How about it's us and others raising our level?? If they want no competition, let them move to Spain or Scotland! I would think all football supporters would want a competitive league rather than just settling for crumbs. Am I the only one that is more worried about the Villa game than the others? Those big budget teams can be had. Just put one man on Aguero/Costa all game, step into them a bit, pick up a yellow, then sub another hard man on to continue.....

0

Fordy added 15:54 - Nov 13 Much as I would love it to happen, I fear the top 4 this year will be Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man U. So if it is to happen I really think we need to get something from the Arsenal and Man U games. On the positive front, I think we are stronger in defence this year. Toby is much better than Lovren and Forster is better than Boruc. Clyne has improved and there's not much between Bertrand and Shaw. I also think there seems to be more of a togetherness within the squad. I would put this down to Jose being a better captain than Adam and Koeman treating everyone equally rather than Poch who clearly had his favourites. On the downside, in midfield with Davis and JWP out fairly long term we are starting to look short of cover. We have Reed who is lacking in experience and then after that? Upfront we are very reliant on Tadic and Pelle. Long can take the place of either of them but it would mean a differnet way of playing. I just think we are al ittle thin in these two areas and if we are going to do it we need Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Cork, Pelle and Tadic to stay fit or suspension free until Davis, JWP and Jayrod are back. Also, if we are still looking like a threat in January I wouldn't put it past the likes of Man U or Arsenal to make a very public £35m bid for Morgan. At the very least it would destabilise us a little and at the very worst would get him agitating for a move and see him going to one of our rivals.

1

thegeneral added 17:06 - Nov 13 We failed against the top teams last season because we were predictable. We now have a manager with a plan A,B and C and who can react and make changes as he feels fit, he also has a deeper squad to achieve this.
2

davepid added 04:50 - Nov 14 Good article. If we get just 3 Pts from our next 6 games we can be no worse than 7 th place , and that requires Man utd and the others to win 5 of their next six. Comparisons are made with last season ( I have too) but should we also begin to compare this season to our successful Championship year? No one expected us to be at the top of that league in Nov. We were and we stayed there. Coyr

0

Whatsforpud added 09:28 - Nov 14 Re Fordy's comment that Forster is better than Boruc. He might be, but he hasn't really been tested yet. The whole team has defended so well that, in many games, he has been left with little to do. There are probably no stats to support it, but it is possible that he has made fewer saves, clearances etc than any other keeper in the league.
0

Stripes_07 added 10:15 - Nov 15 Saints can finish in the top4 but will not be regarded as a 'top4 club'. The key to being regarded as a top4 club is getting our profile raised around the world and some big income from sponsors, we are joint bottom of the PL in that respect, way behind QPR let alone Spurs/Everton who are clubs we can overtake if it was only to do with the playing staff. It would be great to have an update on this from the Board on this. Ralph has said that it was one of their priorities to achieving the goal of 'sustainability'.

0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Rochdale Polls