| euro group opposition 21:58 - Aug 22 with 14380 views | mawdlamjack |
after tonights demolition of draculas daughters who would you like to see us play in the group stage (comfortably presuming our qualification) |  |
| on the northbank since 64 now languishing in the east stand |
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| euro group opposition on 22:13 - Aug 22 with 12074 views | longlostjack |
Lyon - nice city - and great merguez sausages outside the ground. |  |
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| euro group opposition on 22:21 - Aug 22 with 12030 views | PozuelosSideys |
The shittest sides possible please! |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| euro group opposition on 23:12 - Aug 22 with 11895 views | latchford |
Celtic to shove it up em. Glasgow nice city too.
Portugese team for some sun and maybe a German team for the nockers |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 23:15 - Aug 22 with 11875 views | PedroJack |
Real Betis would be good, bit of Spanish sun, tapas and one or two beers!  |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 06:23 - Aug 23 with 11719 views | JoeSoccerFan |
I wouldn't mind visiting Florence. | | | |
| euro group opposition on 07:12 - Aug 23 with 11660 views | orion3016 |
We're all going to be skint!! |  |
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| euro group opposition on 07:30 - Aug 23 with 11644 views | epaul |
| euro group opposition on 07:12 - Aug 23 by orion3016 |
We're all going to be skint!! |
Brilliiant! and not wrong!! [Post edited 23 Aug 2013 7:31]
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| The hair and the beard have gone I am now conforming to society, tis a sad day
The b*stards are coming back though |
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| euro group opposition on 15:21 - Aug 23 with 11445 views | Dull1Thomas |
| euro group opposition on 06:23 - Aug 23 by JoeSoccerFan |
I wouldn't mind visiting Florence. |
Fantastic but expensive city | |
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| euro group opposition on 16:08 - Aug 23 with 11365 views | malagajack |
| euro group opposition on 23:15 - Aug 22 by PedroJack |
Real Betis would be good, bit of Spanish sun, tapas and one or two beers! |
or sevilla would be very handy for me | | | |
| euro group opposition on 06:37 - Aug 25 with 11160 views | JoeSoccerFan |
Based upon Swansea's Europa play-off stage aggregate, I wondered if Swansea could get a 2nd seed in the Europa group stage.
Here are my understandings/assumptions of the seeding process:
There are 48 teams involved with the group stage which includes 7 teams that go directly into group (Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Vitória de Guimarães, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala), 10 losers from Champion's league play-off round and 31 winners from the Europa play-off round.
The source that I used for the team rankings is this URL, http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2014.html and these numbers were as of August 22nd, 2013 at 2325 CET. According to this source, Swansea has a ranking of 15.564. For my analysis, I'm not considering that the ranking values could change in the next week.
I believe that the teams will be seeded into 4 pots based upon the UEFA team co-efficients (rankings). In order to be in the second pot, Swansea must be ranked between 13th and 24th place for all the teams in the Europe group stage.
I'll agree that I don't understand the details on how the rankings (co-efficients) are calculated and that I use the numbers without this core understanding.
Of the 10 teams in the Champions league, there are 5 ties that both of the competing teams have a higher ranking than Swansea. These are Arsenal-Fenerbahçe, Olympique Lyon-Real Sociedad, Milan-PSV, Schalke 04-PAOK Thessaloniki, Dinamo Zagreb-Austria Wien. Therefore it doesn't matter who wins, the loser will have a higher ranking than Swansea.
Of the 7 teams that go directly into group, 6 of these have higher rankings. These are Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala. Freiburg is at 15.799 - just a tad higher than Swansea's 15.564. Just a reminder, I'm not considering the change of rankings based upon games this week and the impact this could have.
So, of the 12 seeds in the first pot, 11 are already higher than Swansea. It's mathematically possible, that Swansea could be in the 1st pot, but extremely highly unlikely given the results of the 1st week. It'd be more likely that Swansea would be beaten by more than 4 goals on Thursday.
Could Swansea wind up in pot 4?
Vitória de Guimarães is in the group that automatically qualify to the group stage and they have a lower ranking (14.359) than Swansea. Maccabi Tel-Aviv have advanced to the group because of match-fixing and they have a lower ranking (10.200).
There are 11 ties on Thursday where both teams have a lower ranking than Swansea. Therefore, it doesn't matter which team wins, because Swansea would be above the winner.
With these 11 and the 2 (Vitória de Guimarãe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv), it's not possible for Swansea to be in pot 4. At worst, Swansea would be the 35th ranked team.
There are no Europa ties that both teams have a superior ranking to Swansea. Therefore, if the lesser ranked team wins, Swansea gets 1 slot closer to being the 24th ranked team.
Excluding Swansea's match, currently 14 of the higher ranked teams won their match last Thursday, 2 ties were draws and 3 ties the lower ranked team won. Check the math - 11 lower; 13 higher won; 2 draws; 3 lower ranked won = 29 + Swansea + Maccabi Tel-Avi = 31 teams.
Of the Europe matches on Thursday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
The 2 draws:
Root for St Gallen to win (or draw with +2 goals) at Spartak Moscow
Root for Zulte Waregem to win (or draw with with +2 goals) at APOEL Nicossia
The 3 lower ranked team won:
Root for Slovan Liberec to win, draw or lose by only 1 goal (or lose 2-0) at home vs Udinese
Root for Tromsø IL to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal and score more than 1 goal) at Besiktas
Root for Rijeka to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal goal and score more than 1 goal) at Stuttgart
The 13 higher ranked team won to win outright without considering away goals:
Root for Dinamo Tbilisi to win by 6 goals at Tottenham
Root for Molde FK to win by 3 goals at Rubin Kazan
Root for Pandurii Târgu Jiu to win by 2 goals at Sporting Braga
Root for FK Aktobe to win by 2 goals at Dinamo Kiev
Root for Slask Wroclawto win 3-0 or by 5 goals at home vs Sevilla
Root for Atromitos FC to win by 3 goals at AZ Alkmaar
Root for Minsk to win by 3 goals at Standard Liege
Root for Grasshoppers Zürich to win by 2 goals at Fiorentina
Root for Zalgiris Vilnius to win by 6 goals at home vs Red Bull Salzburg
Root for FH Hafnarfjardar to win by 3 goals at Racing Genk
Root for Kalju Nomme to win by 3 goals at Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Root for FK Kukësi to win by 3 goals at Trabzonspor
Root for FK Jablonec to win by 2 goals at Real Betis
The champions league play-off matches means that we should root for the higher ranked teams to win so that lower ranked teams will drop into the Europa group stages and be lower than Swansea. Of the 5 ties that could matter for the Champion league matches on Tuesday/Wednesday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1)
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda
Of these 23 matches, if all of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 1.
Of these 23 matches, if 11 of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 2.
Otherwise Swansea is in pot 3.
Or we can wait until Friday to find out where Swansea is going and in what group and seeding pot.  [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 6:44]
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| euro group opposition on 07:12 - Aug 25 with 11121 views | marchamjack |
| euro group opposition on 06:37 - Aug 25 by JoeSoccerFan |
Based upon Swansea's Europa play-off stage aggregate, I wondered if Swansea could get a 2nd seed in the Europa group stage.
Here are my understandings/assumptions of the seeding process:
There are 48 teams involved with the group stage which includes 7 teams that go directly into group (Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Vitória de Guimarães, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala), 10 losers from Champion's league play-off round and 31 winners from the Europa play-off round.
The source that I used for the team rankings is this URL, http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2014.html and these numbers were as of August 22nd, 2013 at 2325 CET. According to this source, Swansea has a ranking of 15.564. For my analysis, I'm not considering that the ranking values could change in the next week.
I believe that the teams will be seeded into 4 pots based upon the UEFA team co-efficients (rankings). In order to be in the second pot, Swansea must be ranked between 13th and 24th place for all the teams in the Europe group stage.
I'll agree that I don't understand the details on how the rankings (co-efficients) are calculated and that I use the numbers without this core understanding.
Of the 10 teams in the Champions league, there are 5 ties that both of the competing teams have a higher ranking than Swansea. These are Arsenal-Fenerbahçe, Olympique Lyon-Real Sociedad, Milan-PSV, Schalke 04-PAOK Thessaloniki, Dinamo Zagreb-Austria Wien. Therefore it doesn't matter who wins, the loser will have a higher ranking than Swansea.
Of the 7 teams that go directly into group, 6 of these have higher rankings. These are Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala. Freiburg is at 15.799 - just a tad higher than Swansea's 15.564. Just a reminder, I'm not considering the change of rankings based upon games this week and the impact this could have.
So, of the 12 seeds in the first pot, 11 are already higher than Swansea. It's mathematically possible, that Swansea could be in the 1st pot, but extremely highly unlikely given the results of the 1st week. It'd be more likely that Swansea would be beaten by more than 4 goals on Thursday.
Could Swansea wind up in pot 4?
Vitória de Guimarães is in the group that automatically qualify to the group stage and they have a lower ranking (14.359) than Swansea. Maccabi Tel-Aviv have advanced to the group because of match-fixing and they have a lower ranking (10.200).
There are 11 ties on Thursday where both teams have a lower ranking than Swansea. Therefore, it doesn't matter which team wins, because Swansea would be above the winner.
With these 11 and the 2 (Vitória de Guimarãe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv), it's not possible for Swansea to be in pot 4. At worst, Swansea would be the 35th ranked team.
There are no Europa ties that both teams have a superior ranking to Swansea. Therefore, if the lesser ranked team wins, Swansea gets 1 slot closer to being the 24th ranked team.
Excluding Swansea's match, currently 14 of the higher ranked teams won their match last Thursday, 2 ties were draws and 3 ties the lower ranked team won. Check the math - 11 lower; 13 higher won; 2 draws; 3 lower ranked won = 29 + Swansea + Maccabi Tel-Avi = 31 teams.
Of the Europe matches on Thursday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
The 2 draws:
Root for St Gallen to win (or draw with +2 goals) at Spartak Moscow
Root for Zulte Waregem to win (or draw with with +2 goals) at APOEL Nicossia
The 3 lower ranked team won:
Root for Slovan Liberec to win, draw or lose by only 1 goal (or lose 2-0) at home vs Udinese
Root for Tromsø IL to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal and score more than 1 goal) at Besiktas
Root for Rijeka to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal goal and score more than 1 goal) at Stuttgart
The 13 higher ranked team won to win outright without considering away goals:
Root for Dinamo Tbilisi to win by 6 goals at Tottenham
Root for Molde FK to win by 3 goals at Rubin Kazan
Root for Pandurii Târgu Jiu to win by 2 goals at Sporting Braga
Root for FK Aktobe to win by 2 goals at Dinamo Kiev
Root for Slask Wroclawto win 3-0 or by 5 goals at home vs Sevilla
Root for Atromitos FC to win by 3 goals at AZ Alkmaar
Root for Minsk to win by 3 goals at Standard Liege
Root for Grasshoppers Zürich to win by 2 goals at Fiorentina
Root for Zalgiris Vilnius to win by 6 goals at home vs Red Bull Salzburg
Root for FH Hafnarfjardar to win by 3 goals at Racing Genk
Root for Kalju Nomme to win by 3 goals at Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Root for FK Kukësi to win by 3 goals at Trabzonspor
Root for FK Jablonec to win by 2 goals at Real Betis
The champions league play-off matches means that we should root for the higher ranked teams to win so that lower ranked teams will drop into the Europa group stages and be lower than Swansea. Of the 5 ties that could matter for the Champion league matches on Tuesday/Wednesday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1)
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda
Of these 23 matches, if all of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 1.
Of these 23 matches, if 11 of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 2.
Otherwise Swansea is in pot 3.
Or we can wait until Friday to find out where Swansea is going and in what group and seeding pot. [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 6:44]
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Wow. Just wow. My head hurts.
 |  |
| Oh,..Dave, what's occuring? |
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| euro group opposition on 07:14 - Aug 25 with 11118 views | bargoedjack |
| euro group opposition on 06:37 - Aug 25 by JoeSoccerFan |
Based upon Swansea's Europa play-off stage aggregate, I wondered if Swansea could get a 2nd seed in the Europa group stage.
Here are my understandings/assumptions of the seeding process:
There are 48 teams involved with the group stage which includes 7 teams that go directly into group (Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Vitória de Guimarães, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala), 10 losers from Champion's league play-off round and 31 winners from the Europa play-off round.
The source that I used for the team rankings is this URL, http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2014.html and these numbers were as of August 22nd, 2013 at 2325 CET. According to this source, Swansea has a ranking of 15.564. For my analysis, I'm not considering that the ranking values could change in the next week.
I believe that the teams will be seeded into 4 pots based upon the UEFA team co-efficients (rankings). In order to be in the second pot, Swansea must be ranked between 13th and 24th place for all the teams in the Europe group stage.
I'll agree that I don't understand the details on how the rankings (co-efficients) are calculated and that I use the numbers without this core understanding.
Of the 10 teams in the Champions league, there are 5 ties that both of the competing teams have a higher ranking than Swansea. These are Arsenal-Fenerbahçe, Olympique Lyon-Real Sociedad, Milan-PSV, Schalke 04-PAOK Thessaloniki, Dinamo Zagreb-Austria Wien. Therefore it doesn't matter who wins, the loser will have a higher ranking than Swansea.
Of the 7 teams that go directly into group, 6 of these have higher rankings. These are Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala. Freiburg is at 15.799 - just a tad higher than Swansea's 15.564. Just a reminder, I'm not considering the change of rankings based upon games this week and the impact this could have.
So, of the 12 seeds in the first pot, 11 are already higher than Swansea. It's mathematically possible, that Swansea could be in the 1st pot, but extremely highly unlikely given the results of the 1st week. It'd be more likely that Swansea would be beaten by more than 4 goals on Thursday.
Could Swansea wind up in pot 4?
Vitória de Guimarães is in the group that automatically qualify to the group stage and they have a lower ranking (14.359) than Swansea. Maccabi Tel-Aviv have advanced to the group because of match-fixing and they have a lower ranking (10.200).
There are 11 ties on Thursday where both teams have a lower ranking than Swansea. Therefore, it doesn't matter which team wins, because Swansea would be above the winner.
With these 11 and the 2 (Vitória de Guimarãe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv), it's not possible for Swansea to be in pot 4. At worst, Swansea would be the 35th ranked team.
There are no Europa ties that both teams have a superior ranking to Swansea. Therefore, if the lesser ranked team wins, Swansea gets 1 slot closer to being the 24th ranked team.
Excluding Swansea's match, currently 14 of the higher ranked teams won their match last Thursday, 2 ties were draws and 3 ties the lower ranked team won. Check the math - 11 lower; 13 higher won; 2 draws; 3 lower ranked won = 29 + Swansea + Maccabi Tel-Avi = 31 teams.
Of the Europe matches on Thursday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
The 2 draws:
Root for St Gallen to win (or draw with +2 goals) at Spartak Moscow
Root for Zulte Waregem to win (or draw with with +2 goals) at APOEL Nicossia
The 3 lower ranked team won:
Root for Slovan Liberec to win, draw or lose by only 1 goal (or lose 2-0) at home vs Udinese
Root for Tromsø IL to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal and score more than 1 goal) at Besiktas
Root for Rijeka to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal goal and score more than 1 goal) at Stuttgart
The 13 higher ranked team won to win outright without considering away goals:
Root for Dinamo Tbilisi to win by 6 goals at Tottenham
Root for Molde FK to win by 3 goals at Rubin Kazan
Root for Pandurii Târgu Jiu to win by 2 goals at Sporting Braga
Root for FK Aktobe to win by 2 goals at Dinamo Kiev
Root for Slask Wroclawto win 3-0 or by 5 goals at home vs Sevilla
Root for Atromitos FC to win by 3 goals at AZ Alkmaar
Root for Minsk to win by 3 goals at Standard Liege
Root for Grasshoppers Zürich to win by 2 goals at Fiorentina
Root for Zalgiris Vilnius to win by 6 goals at home vs Red Bull Salzburg
Root for FH Hafnarfjardar to win by 3 goals at Racing Genk
Root for Kalju Nomme to win by 3 goals at Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Root for FK Kukësi to win by 3 goals at Trabzonspor
Root for FK Jablonec to win by 2 goals at Real Betis
The champions league play-off matches means that we should root for the higher ranked teams to win so that lower ranked teams will drop into the Europa group stages and be lower than Swansea. Of the 5 ties that could matter for the Champion league matches on Tuesday/Wednesday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1)
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda
Of these 23 matches, if all of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 1.
Of these 23 matches, if 11 of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 2.
Otherwise Swansea is in pot 3.
Or we can wait until Friday to find out where Swansea is going and in what group and seeding pot. [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 6:44]
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Or in other words barring a series of miracles, we will be seeded three in the group stages... [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 7:15]
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| euro group opposition on 22:03 - Aug 27 with 10919 views | JoeSoccerFan |
| euro group opposition on 07:14 - Aug 25 by bargoedjack |
Or in other words barring a series of miracles, we will be seeded three in the group stages... [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 7:15]
|
pretty much.
After today's UCL results, Swansea moves up from 35 to 33rd with 2 favorable results.
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1) RESULT: Steaua Bucuresti draws 3-3 Advances! YEA!!!
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad RESULT: FC Basel wins 2-0; Advances! YEA!!! [Post edited 27 Aug 2013 22:04]
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| euro group opposition on 12:14 - Aug 28 with 10647 views | Polskijack |
| euro group opposition on 22:03 - Aug 27 by JoeSoccerFan |
pretty much.
After today's UCL results, Swansea moves up from 35 to 33rd with 2 favorable results.
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1) RESULT: Steaua Bucuresti draws 3-3 Advances! YEA!!!
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad RESULT: FC Basel wins 2-0; Advances! YEA!!! [Post edited 27 Aug 2013 22:04]
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My two nearest teams are Slask Wroclaw (about 80 miles) and Slovan Liberec (65 miles). Wroclaw will go out tomorrow barring a major upset so is there any chance with the seedings, that we could draw Liberec should they win? |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 13:02 - Aug 28 with 10568 views | JackFish |
There's a very slim possibility of moving up to pot 2, but it basically involves the two Turkish sides being thrown out and then another five higher ranked teams going out, while none of the lower ranked CL teams (i.e. Shakhter Karagandy) qualify tonight.
There's a few higher ranked teams struggling, Udinese lost 3-1 at home, but we're struggling to move up and will almost certainly be in pot 3.
Liberec are 3-1 up against Udinese, and their coefficient is low, they'll definitely be in pot 4. So 1/12 chance of meeting them. |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 13:10 - Aug 28 with 10545 views | monmouth |
How does this competition work these days? Is it still two sets of group stages (ie 12 matches) then QF/SF/Final? I've lost track....it always used to seem to go on forever. |  |
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| euro group opposition on 13:24 - Aug 28 with 10517 views | JackFish |
No. One group stage, four teams in each group, play them all twice for six games.
Top two from each of the 12 groups go through to the knockout stages, along with eight third-placed teams from the CL. (24+8 = 32), then a straight knockout from there to the final.
So if we were to reach the final, we'd have to play:
2 x QR3
2 x QR4
6 x Group
2 x R2
2 x R3
2 x QF
2 x SF
1 x F
For a total of 19 matches. | | | |
| euro group opposition on 13:40 - Aug 28 with 10480 views | monmouth |
Ta Mr Fish. | |
| |
| euro group opposition on 13:52 - Aug 28 with 10455 views | Polskijack |
| euro group opposition on 13:02 - Aug 28 by JackFish |
There's a very slim possibility of moving up to pot 2, but it basically involves the two Turkish sides being thrown out and then another five higher ranked teams going out, while none of the lower ranked CL teams (i.e. Shakhter Karagandy) qualify tonight.
There's a few higher ranked teams struggling, Udinese lost 3-1 at home, but we're struggling to move up and will almost certainly be in pot 3.
Liberec are 3-1 up against Udinese, and their coefficient is low, they'll definitely be in pot 4. So 1/12 chance of meeting them. |
Thanks  | | | |
| euro group opposition on 18:45 - Aug 28 with 10308 views | JoeSoccerFan |
JackFish on fire!
great stuff. | | | |
| euro group opposition on 19:11 - Aug 28 with 10286 views | Lobo |
| euro group opposition on 06:37 - Aug 25 by JoeSoccerFan |
Based upon Swansea's Europa play-off stage aggregate, I wondered if Swansea could get a 2nd seed in the Europa group stage.
Here are my understandings/assumptions of the seeding process:
There are 48 teams involved with the group stage which includes 7 teams that go directly into group (Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Vitória de Guimarães, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala), 10 losers from Champion's league play-off round and 31 winners from the Europa play-off round.
The source that I used for the team rankings is this URL, http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2014.html and these numbers were as of August 22nd, 2013 at 2325 CET. According to this source, Swansea has a ranking of 15.564. For my analysis, I'm not considering that the ranking values could change in the next week.
I believe that the teams will be seeded into 4 pots based upon the UEFA team co-efficients (rankings). In order to be in the second pot, Swansea must be ranked between 13th and 24th place for all the teams in the Europe group stage.
I'll agree that I don't understand the details on how the rankings (co-efficients) are calculated and that I use the numbers without this core understanding.
Of the 10 teams in the Champions league, there are 5 ties that both of the competing teams have a higher ranking than Swansea. These are Arsenal-Fenerbahçe, Olympique Lyon-Real Sociedad, Milan-PSV, Schalke 04-PAOK Thessaloniki, Dinamo Zagreb-Austria Wien. Therefore it doesn't matter who wins, the loser will have a higher ranking than Swansea.
Of the 7 teams that go directly into group, 6 of these have higher rankings. These are Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala. Freiburg is at 15.799 - just a tad higher than Swansea's 15.564. Just a reminder, I'm not considering the change of rankings based upon games this week and the impact this could have.
So, of the 12 seeds in the first pot, 11 are already higher than Swansea. It's mathematically possible, that Swansea could be in the 1st pot, but extremely highly unlikely given the results of the 1st week. It'd be more likely that Swansea would be beaten by more than 4 goals on Thursday.
Could Swansea wind up in pot 4?
Vitória de Guimarães is in the group that automatically qualify to the group stage and they have a lower ranking (14.359) than Swansea. Maccabi Tel-Aviv have advanced to the group because of match-fixing and they have a lower ranking (10.200).
There are 11 ties on Thursday where both teams have a lower ranking than Swansea. Therefore, it doesn't matter which team wins, because Swansea would be above the winner.
With these 11 and the 2 (Vitória de Guimarãe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv), it's not possible for Swansea to be in pot 4. At worst, Swansea would be the 35th ranked team.
There are no Europa ties that both teams have a superior ranking to Swansea. Therefore, if the lesser ranked team wins, Swansea gets 1 slot closer to being the 24th ranked team.
Excluding Swansea's match, currently 14 of the higher ranked teams won their match last Thursday, 2 ties were draws and 3 ties the lower ranked team won. Check the math - 11 lower; 13 higher won; 2 draws; 3 lower ranked won = 29 + Swansea + Maccabi Tel-Avi = 31 teams.
Of the Europe matches on Thursday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
The 2 draws:
Root for St Gallen to win (or draw with +2 goals) at Spartak Moscow
Root for Zulte Waregem to win (or draw with with +2 goals) at APOEL Nicossia
The 3 lower ranked team won:
Root for Slovan Liberec to win, draw or lose by only 1 goal (or lose 2-0) at home vs Udinese
Root for Tromsø IL to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal and score more than 1 goal) at Besiktas
Root for Rijeka to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal goal and score more than 1 goal) at Stuttgart
The 13 higher ranked team won to win outright without considering away goals:
Root for Dinamo Tbilisi to win by 6 goals at Tottenham
Root for Molde FK to win by 3 goals at Rubin Kazan
Root for Pandurii Târgu Jiu to win by 2 goals at Sporting Braga
Root for FK Aktobe to win by 2 goals at Dinamo Kiev
Root for Slask Wroclawto win 3-0 or by 5 goals at home vs Sevilla
Root for Atromitos FC to win by 3 goals at AZ Alkmaar
Root for Minsk to win by 3 goals at Standard Liege
Root for Grasshoppers Zürich to win by 2 goals at Fiorentina
Root for Zalgiris Vilnius to win by 6 goals at home vs Red Bull Salzburg
Root for FH Hafnarfjardar to win by 3 goals at Racing Genk
Root for Kalju Nomme to win by 3 goals at Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Root for FK Kukësi to win by 3 goals at Trabzonspor
Root for FK Jablonec to win by 2 goals at Real Betis
The champions league play-off matches means that we should root for the higher ranked teams to win so that lower ranked teams will drop into the Europa group stages and be lower than Swansea. Of the 5 ties that could matter for the Champion league matches on Tuesday/Wednesday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1)
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda
Of these 23 matches, if all of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 1.
Of these 23 matches, if 11 of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 2.
Otherwise Swansea is in pot 3.
Or we can wait until Friday to find out where Swansea is going and in what group and seeding pot. [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 6:44]
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wow this competition is ridiculously complex. They should go back to a straight knockout over two legs. Scrap group stages and seedings. Not good for money men but would make for a more watchable tournament. | | | |
| euro group opposition on 19:53 - Aug 28 with 10245 views | Missbehaven |
| euro group opposition on 06:37 - Aug 25 by JoeSoccerFan |
Based upon Swansea's Europa play-off stage aggregate, I wondered if Swansea could get a 2nd seed in the Europa group stage.
Here are my understandings/assumptions of the seeding process:
There are 48 teams involved with the group stage which includes 7 teams that go directly into group (Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Vitória de Guimarães, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala), 10 losers from Champion's league play-off round and 31 winners from the Europa play-off round.
The source that I used for the team rankings is this URL, http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2014.html and these numbers were as of August 22nd, 2013 at 2325 CET. According to this source, Swansea has a ranking of 15.564. For my analysis, I'm not considering that the ranking values could change in the next week.
I believe that the teams will be seeded into 4 pots based upon the UEFA team co-efficients (rankings). In order to be in the second pot, Swansea must be ranked between 13th and 24th place for all the teams in the Europe group stage.
I'll agree that I don't understand the details on how the rankings (co-efficients) are calculated and that I use the numbers without this core understanding.
Of the 10 teams in the Champions league, there are 5 ties that both of the competing teams have a higher ranking than Swansea. These are Arsenal-Fenerbahçe, Olympique Lyon-Real Sociedad, Milan-PSV, Schalke 04-PAOK Thessaloniki, Dinamo Zagreb-Austria Wien. Therefore it doesn't matter who wins, the loser will have a higher ranking than Swansea.
Of the 7 teams that go directly into group, 6 of these have higher rankings. These are Wigan, Valencia, Frieburg, Lazio, Bordeaux, Anzhi Makhachkala. Freiburg is at 15.799 - just a tad higher than Swansea's 15.564. Just a reminder, I'm not considering the change of rankings based upon games this week and the impact this could have.
So, of the 12 seeds in the first pot, 11 are already higher than Swansea. It's mathematically possible, that Swansea could be in the 1st pot, but extremely highly unlikely given the results of the 1st week. It'd be more likely that Swansea would be beaten by more than 4 goals on Thursday.
Could Swansea wind up in pot 4?
Vitória de Guimarães is in the group that automatically qualify to the group stage and they have a lower ranking (14.359) than Swansea. Maccabi Tel-Aviv have advanced to the group because of match-fixing and they have a lower ranking (10.200).
There are 11 ties on Thursday where both teams have a lower ranking than Swansea. Therefore, it doesn't matter which team wins, because Swansea would be above the winner.
With these 11 and the 2 (Vitória de Guimarãe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv), it's not possible for Swansea to be in pot 4. At worst, Swansea would be the 35th ranked team.
There are no Europa ties that both teams have a superior ranking to Swansea. Therefore, if the lesser ranked team wins, Swansea gets 1 slot closer to being the 24th ranked team.
Excluding Swansea's match, currently 14 of the higher ranked teams won their match last Thursday, 2 ties were draws and 3 ties the lower ranked team won. Check the math - 11 lower; 13 higher won; 2 draws; 3 lower ranked won = 29 + Swansea + Maccabi Tel-Avi = 31 teams.
Of the Europe matches on Thursday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
The 2 draws:
Root for St Gallen to win (or draw with +2 goals) at Spartak Moscow
Root for Zulte Waregem to win (or draw with with +2 goals) at APOEL Nicossia
The 3 lower ranked team won:
Root for Slovan Liberec to win, draw or lose by only 1 goal (or lose 2-0) at home vs Udinese
Root for Tromsø IL to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal and score more than 1 goal) at Besiktas
Root for Rijeka to win, draw or (lose by 1 goal goal and score more than 1 goal) at Stuttgart
The 13 higher ranked team won to win outright without considering away goals:
Root for Dinamo Tbilisi to win by 6 goals at Tottenham
Root for Molde FK to win by 3 goals at Rubin Kazan
Root for Pandurii Târgu Jiu to win by 2 goals at Sporting Braga
Root for FK Aktobe to win by 2 goals at Dinamo Kiev
Root for Slask Wroclawto win 3-0 or by 5 goals at home vs Sevilla
Root for Atromitos FC to win by 3 goals at AZ Alkmaar
Root for Minsk to win by 3 goals at Standard Liege
Root for Grasshoppers Zürich to win by 2 goals at Fiorentina
Root for Zalgiris Vilnius to win by 6 goals at home vs Red Bull Salzburg
Root for FH Hafnarfjardar to win by 3 goals at Racing Genk
Root for Kalju Nomme to win by 3 goals at Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Root for FK Kukësi to win by 3 goals at Trabzonspor
Root for FK Jablonec to win by 2 goals at Real Betis
The champions league play-off matches means that we should root for the higher ranked teams to win so that lower ranked teams will drop into the Europa group stages and be lower than Swansea. Of the 5 ties that could matter for the Champion league matches on Tuesday/Wednesday, here's who we should root for (specifically to outpace the winner's ranking) without considering extra time or pks:
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1)
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda
Of these 23 matches, if all of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 1.
Of these 23 matches, if 11 of the results work out and the ranking values don't change, Swansea is in pot 2.
Otherwise Swansea is in pot 3.
Or we can wait until Friday to find out where Swansea is going and in what group and seeding pot. [Post edited 25 Aug 2013 6:44]
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wall of text.. |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 23:19 - Aug 28 with 10082 views | JoeSoccerFan |
Unbelievably good results for the Swans today.
After today's UCL results, Swansea moves up from 33rd to 30th with 3 favorable results.
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1) RESULT: Steaua Bucuresti draws 3-3 Advances! YEA!!!
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad RESULT: FC Basel wins 2-0; Advances! YEA!!! - See more at: http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/87451/1036601/euro-group
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira RESULT: Zenit St. Petersburg wins 4-2; Advances! YEA!!!
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor RESULT: Viktoria Plzen wins 1-0; Advances! YEA!!!
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda RESULT: Celtic comes back from an 0-2 aggregate in game 1 to score 3 at home and Advance! YEA!!!
Tomorrow is the big day.
With 2 matches tied in the first leg and 3 matches where the lower rated team is leading, if there are a few upsets, Swansea could find themselves in the 2nd pot! [Post edited 28 Aug 2013 23:27]
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| euro group opposition on 08:32 - Aug 29 with 9865 views | Whiterockin |
| euro group opposition on 23:19 - Aug 28 by JoeSoccerFan |
Unbelievably good results for the Swans today.
After today's UCL results, Swansea moves up from 33rd to 30th with 3 favorable results.
Root for Steaua Bucuresti to win or (draw and score more than 1 goal) at Legia Warsaw (prev. drew 1-1) RESULT: Steaua Bucuresti draws 3-3 Advances! YEA!!!
Root for FC Basel to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs Ludogorets Razgrad RESULT: FC Basel wins 2-0; Advances! YEA!!! - See more at: http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/87451/1036601/euro-group
Root for Zenit St. Petersburg to win, draw or lose by less than 3 goals vs Paços de Ferreira RESULT: Zenit St. Petersburg wins 4-2; Advances! YEA!!!
Root for Viktoria Plzen to win, draw or lose by less than 2 goals vs NK Maribor RESULT: Viktoria Plzen wins 1-0; Advances! YEA!!!
Root for Celtic to win by 3 goals vs Shakhtyor Karaganda RESULT: Celtic comes back from an 0-2 aggregate in game 1 to score 3 at home and Advance! YEA!!!
Tomorrow is the big day.
With 2 matches tied in the first leg and 3 matches where the lower rated team is leading, if there are a few upsets, Swansea could find themselves in the 2nd pot! [Post edited 28 Aug 2013 23:27]
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All this is just to feking complicated for me. I will just wait for the draw providing we get through. |  | | |
| euro group opposition on 13:43 - Aug 29 with 9703 views | TenkosBlondeWig |
Wibble |  | | |
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