Forum | So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 by Dr_Parnassus

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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 02:51 - May 2 with 11916 views

Firstly congratulations to Steve Cooper, the players and everyone at the club for not only reaching the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but amassing a points tally equal to our record best in this division, held previously by our incredible Brendan Rodgers side the year we went up.

We do have a chance to topple that record with any kind of positive result against Watford next week.

2011

2021

Not only is the points tally being exactly the same pretty remarkable, but also the fact we were going in with the best defensive record and yet the worst (joint) scoring record. Whether or not you like the style, like the manager - the blueprint has been very similar with regards to that.

But now the playoffs have been decided and we can look ahead...

The worst possible result for us sadly. They are one of those teams we don’t seem to do well against and think it’s fair to say that on paper have the strongest squad in the playoffs. Our last 6 meetings:-

Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth

Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth

Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-3 Bournemouth

0 goals scored. 9 goals conceded.

As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities.

That premise suggests that you want to avoid the best team over the longest period of time. If you must meet that team then you have a greater chance to beat that team over a shorter period of time.

For example if Man City played Sheff United over a 90 minute match, they would probably be in the region of 1/10 to win, if the rules of the game made that a 180 minute match the odds would probably be 1/20, because the longer the time you have the more chance that the class difference will tell.

So ideally we would have wanted them in the final where aspects such as luck can play a part and not have chance to even itself out over the longer course of 2 legs.

So it’s going to be tough. But not impossible. We had a similar route in the Carling Cup where we were faced with playing Chelsea over 2 legs which set up an easier final. So it’s not out of the question.

Bournemouth rested a host of players against Wycombe yesterday and will probably do so again next week. We didn’t rest as many as I thought we would so would like to see that happen next week, which really is a dead rubber. It would be pretty galling to pick up an injury or red card.

All that is left to play for is home advantage in the second leg.

What will be will be. But whatever happens from here on in, this has been yet another successful season.

[Post edited 2 May 2021 3:06]

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:33 - May 8 with 1004 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth

Get this fraud gone.

Embarrassing

[Post edited 8 May 2021 14:35]

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:36 - May 8 with 984 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:33 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
So it’s Bournemouth Get this fraud gone. Embarrassing [Post edited 8 May 2021 14:35]

Yep Bournemouth was the favourite. Now it’s certainly Barnsley.

The maths is there for you Christopher, I went into great detail.

Any part you are stuck on, let me know and will happily explain slowly.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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-1

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:37 - May 8 with 977 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 02:15 - May 4 by Dr_Parnassus

It’s not definite, just probability wise. There is a scenario we can face Barnsley but it’s the most unlikely outcome out of all possible ones left. Barnsley have Norwich and Bournemouth have Stoke.

Bournemouth aren’t going to want to lose their grip on the middle two places because that means instead of us, they play Brentford without home advantage in the second leg.

If anyone wants the details and breakdown of it specifically:-

Bournemouth have a 55.4% chance to win, 26.3% chance to draw and 18.3% chance to lose.

Barnsley have a 35.7% chance to win, 26.4% chance to draw and 37.7% chance to lose.

So in order for Barnsley to even have a chance to overtake them, that chance will only present itself 44.6% of the time. Once it presents itself they will only take advantage 62.1% of the time (in terms of picking up points), but there is still the chance they both draw and still don’t overtake them (6.9% chance).

So when you convert those % odds, multiply them and convert that to implied probability, it states that the chances of us playing Bournemouth is 79.1%.

Not at all out of the question that we face Barnsley, just statistically the least likely.

As most people are more familiar with odds as opposed to %, with bookies over round applied, it would look something similar to this...

“Swansea to face Bournemouth in the playoffs: 1/5”

[Post edited 4 May 2021 3:13]

Read above.

Ta

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:38 - May 8 with 972 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:33 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
It’s maths. It’s not wrong. You just don’t understand it, like you don’t understand anything even remotely past the basics. I can’t help you there Riscs.

Okay mate

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:38 - May 8 with 970 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:38 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
Okay mate

Good boy.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:39 - May 8 with 961 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 06:53 - May 4 by Dr_Parnassus
I showed the calculations above, those are calculations with the scenarios you described already taken into consideration by the algorithm.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:41 - May 8 with 951 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:39 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54

Yes. That statement is correct.

Which bit has confused you?

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:42 - May 8 with 947 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:39 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54

Rainman had a bit more about him than this guy

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:43 - May 8 with 939 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:42 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
Rainman had a bit more about him than this guy

I’ve never known a fella so sure of himself, get so much wrong it’s marvellous.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:43 - May 8 with 939 views

jack_lord

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:33 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
It’s maths. It’s not wrong. You just don’t understand it, like you don’t understand anything even remotely past the basics. I can’t help you there Riscs.

Algorithm's don't play on the pitch and hopefully the results will have worked in our favour

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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:44 - May 8 with 933 views

Garyjack

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:41 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Yes. That statement is correct. Which bit has confused you?

Has your missus got the gingerbread man in the oven?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:45 - May 8 with 926 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:44 - May 8 by Garyjack
Has your missus got the gingerbread man in the oven?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:47 - May 8 with 917 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:42 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
Rainman had a bit more about him than this guy

Rainman was just as correct as this guy.

The fact you cannot grasp it is mind blowing. But not entirely unexpected.

If I say a coin is more likely to be heads... and it lands on heads. It doesn’t mean that statement is correct, in fact it’s entirely incorrect.

The outcome has no bearing on the facts. Come on now, I know you get all aroused whenever you see my username but trying to state the laws of mathematical principles are incorrect is almost as mad as your other stuff. Almost.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Poll:	Would you swap Ayew for Piroe?

-1

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:47 - May 8 with 907 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:43 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
I’ve never known a fella so sure of himself, get so much wrong it’s marvellous.

A whole article about Bournemouth and how unlucky we are to play them and the only thing to play for is home advantage....was apparently mathematically correct.... yet we end up with Barnsley who didn’t get a mention

Like he says, he approaches life methodically and mathematically like he does with everything in life....... and still gets it all to c0ck ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:49 - May 8 with 904 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:47 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:50 - May 8 with 896 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:43 - May 8 by jack_lord
Algorithm's don't play on the pitch and hopefully the results will have worked in our favour

They don’t claim to.

Algorithms churn out implied probability and over-rounds to 106%. Time dictates the accuracy of the algorithms, and year on year they make 6% profit. They are incredibly accurate.

...and were so again.

They stated that it was more likely we would face Bournemouth. Which was correct and always will be correct.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:51 - May 8 with 886 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:43 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
I’ve never known a fella so sure of himself, get so much wrong it’s marvellous.

Wrong?

Don’t be so silly.

Maths is never wrong. I’ve explained that already.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:15 - May 8 with 823 views

ReslovenSwan1

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:51 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Wrong? Don’t be so silly. Maths is never wrong. I’ve explained that already.

Swansea fans and mathematics statistics are very distant rleatives. The SCST are looking to go to court and every one else in the world thinks they are mad. I have presented a case with figures than make it seem the case is pointless even with a 100% win and all I get is bouncing coins.

They may be getting ready to being fleeced on a very long expensive walk up the garden path.

Wise sage since Toshack era

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:23 - May 8 with 801 views

Chief

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:15 - May 8 by ReslovenSwan1
Swansea fans and mathematics statistics are very distant rleatives. The SCST are looking to go to court and every one else in the world thinks they are mad. I have presented a case with figures than make it seem the case is pointless even with a 100% win and all I get is bouncing coins. They may be getting ready to being fleeced on a very long expensive walk up the garden path.

Haha i thought you'd been quiet on that but somehow you've managed to shoehorn it into a completely random thread. This is up there with one of your most bizarre and tenuous ones.

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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:25 - May 8 with 798 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:15 - May 8 by ReslovenSwan1
Swansea fans and mathematics statistics are very distant rleatives. The SCST are looking to go to court and every one else in the world thinks they are mad. I have presented a case with figures than make it seem the case is pointless even with a 100% win and all I get is bouncing coins. They may be getting ready to being fleeced on a very long expensive walk up the garden path.

Correct. It’s amazing how distant a relation.

If I made the factual statement “If they both play, Andre Ayew has more chance to score the first goal for Swansea than Freddie Woodman in the next game”... I’m sure if Woodman scored the first goal in some freak wind assisted kick from his own half, you would have the usual lot saying “see you were wrong”.

However back on planet earth; Woodman could score 9 in the next game in a 9-0 win and the statement would still be correct.

As for the Trust, I tend to agree. That ship sailed long ago.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:55 - May 8 with 757 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:25 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

But you made the actual statement....

“So it’s Bournemouth...”

Just shut up for a wee while boy, you’re like a clown on here.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:02 - May 8 with 744 views

trampie

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 14:50 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
They don’t claim to. Algorithms churn out implied probability and over-rounds to 106%. Time dictates the accuracy of the algorithms, and year on year they make 6% profit. They are incredibly accurate. ...and were so again. They stated that it was more likely we would face Bournemouth. Which was correct and always will be correct.

But it was wrong in reality, you also thought Swans chances of automatic had improved after a home draw with Wycombe with a handful of games to go didn't you.

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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:04 - May 8 with 739 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 15:55 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
But you made the actual statement.... “So it’s Bournemouth...” Just shut up for a wee while boy, you’re like a clown on here.

“What” is Bournemouth?

You have made your own conclusion.

“So It’s Bournemouth” was in relation to the article, which they were concentrated on due to the 79.1% likelihood we would be playing them.

I went on to clarify the position when questioned and said:-

“ It’s not definite, just probability wise. There is a scenario we can face Barnsley but it’s the most unlikely outcome out of all possible ones left.”

And

“ Not at all out of the question that we face Barnsley, just statistically the least likely. ”

Calm down now child.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:06 - May 8 with 734 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:02 - May 8 by trampie
But it was wrong in reality, you also thought Swans chances of automatic had improved after a home draw with Wycombe with a handful of games to go didn't you.

It was correct in whatever reality you wish to state.

It was also a fact that our chances of automatics had improved after the draw.

I explained that to you in detail too.

I’m good like that, very patient.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:07 - May 8 with 731 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 16:04 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

Hahahahahaha dear me

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