| Irish General Election 15:42 - Feb 9 with 16175 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Seismic shift to the left in Ireland today.
Exit polls suggesting that left parties are heading for 45% of the vote.
So many fascinating issues arising now:
Are Sinn Féin now on a par with the right-wing monoliths of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
Will either of them get into coalition-bed with Sinn Féin?
Can Sinn Féin be trusted in Government?
Have Sinn Féin left violence behind?
Will Ireland, could Ireland, actually have a Left-Wing Government in the near future?
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| Irish General Election on 13:34 - Feb 10 with 1613 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 13:15 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
Just asked why you have the view that SF will take power and hold on to it? It seems like a very extreme view given that Ireland have a preference vote system which generally leads to more coalitions
Also they are a member of the EU, who are not known for supporting autocratic dictatorships
You don’t have time explain or justify your comments so I’ll disregard them! As there aren’t any interesting insights
Frankly I don’t care what your nationality/sex/race/religion/musical preferences or anything else you can think, that can be used to create divisions are...
[Post edited 10 Feb 2020 13:38]
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Not at all. I appreciate the comment. Off next week for my Dad's 25th anniversary in Ballyporeen, luxury accommodation provided by my cousin's pub in Mitchelstown. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 13:36 - Feb 10 with 1603 views | ElHoop |
| Irish General Election on 13:00 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
The trouble now is who to violently reject it against? The UK government? because that has, and did happen in the 1970’s
Boris has/is cutting the Unionists adrift. The precious union has been rejected and disregarded by the UK government as it is politically inconvenient with Brexit and probably the £10bn a year NI costs the UK
If the unionists just run around and kill Catholics as is sung about on the 12th of July every year they can hardly claim to be civilised or non sectarian or committed to peace.
SF have always been against the UK government and its presence in Ireland. The army/police are a very visible target.
The unionists are against Catholics and for the UK government to continue their presence in Northern Ireland.
So violence against the UK state is likely to hasten what the unions fear the most — UK withdrawal from NI.
Whether the south would even accept 1 million new citizens with an illogical racial intolerance and a desire to burn Catholics is more of an unknown to my mind anyway. |
If it was as simple as a 'UK withdrawal from NI' then it would have happened long ago. The problem is not about us withdrawing, it's about them leaving!
How many times did Gladstone try to free the whole of Ireland? From that point on, when did we ever force them to stay in the UK? It's not about violence against the UK state (of which they are a part anyway) it's about violence against being forced to do something that they don't wish to do.
Until they want to leave the UK, I don't see how they ever will, and nobody else will force the issue as it would surely be far too dangerous? |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 13:56 - Feb 10 with 1543 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 13:36 - Feb 10 by ElHoop |
If it was as simple as a 'UK withdrawal from NI' then it would have happened long ago. The problem is not about us withdrawing, it's about them leaving!
How many times did Gladstone try to free the whole of Ireland? From that point on, when did we ever force them to stay in the UK? It's not about violence against the UK state (of which they are a part anyway) it's about violence against being forced to do something that they don't wish to do.
Until they want to leave the UK, I don't see how they ever will, and nobody else will force the issue as it would surely be far too dangerous? |
I hope there is no return to volience and i certianly can't see anyone being forced off their land, but
The police in belfast can't even dismantle a massive pile of pallets and borris does apear to pushing NI away...so the issue is being forced politically by the UK gov, but by calling it somehting else and hoping no one notices |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 14:08 - Feb 10 with 1521 views | TheChef |
| Irish General Election on 16:45 - Feb 9 by Paddyhoops |
As an economic refugee of 32 years or so and being subjected to a straight choice between Fine Gael and Fine fail on the couple of occasions I did vote back in the eighties, it's good to see an alternative party emerge even it is the party of Gerry "I was never a member of the IRA " Adam's.
What an odd world we live in when the possibility of a sinn fein led dail could stand side by side with a Dominic Cummins ...sorry Boris Johnson Government and not forgetting the free worlds populist in Chief , Donald Trump.🤦â€â™€ï¸ðŸ¤¦â€â™€ï¸ |
All the world is a stage. |  |
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| Irish General Election on 14:16 - Feb 10 with 1498 views | Boston |
| Irish General Election on 13:15 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
Just asked why you have the view that SF will take power and hold on to it? It seems like a very extreme view given that Ireland have a preference vote system which generally leads to more coalitions
Also they are a member of the EU, who are not known for supporting autocratic dictatorships
You don’t have time explain or justify your comments so I’ll disregard them! As there aren’t any interesting insights
Frankly I don’t care what your nationality/sex/race/religion/musical preferences or anything else you can think, that can be used to create divisions are...
[Post edited 10 Feb 2020 13:38]
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So, no answer on the cheese or Chelsea questions then? | |
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| Irish General Election on 14:31 - Feb 10 with 1465 views | johncharles |
| Irish General Election on 10:25 - Feb 10 by stevec |
I imagine Boris is having a rethink about that bridge between Scotland and Ireland ! |
Boris couldn’t build the garden bridge across the Thames and lost (taxpayers) a shed load of money. |  |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| Irish General Election on 15:08 - Feb 10 with 1409 views | Boston |
| Irish General Election on 14:08 - Feb 10 by TheChef |
All the world is a stage. |
Flat or circular? | |
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| Irish General Election on 15:10 - Feb 10 with 1410 views | johncharles |
| Irish General Election on 15:08 - Feb 10 by Boston |
Flat or circular? |
Wells Fargo | |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| Irish General Election on 15:34 - Feb 10 with 1356 views | CiderwithRsie |
Seems to me that this may make a united Ireland slightly less likely for the next few years.
The last couple of elections in NI (the General Election and the European and local elections last summer) showed a slight shift away from SF and the DUP towards the Alliance, the SDLP and "Official" Unionists. Combine that with Republicans being overwhelmingly anti-Brexit, some moderate Unionists feeling the same way, the future border in the Irish Sea, and a shift in the younger generation away from sectarian politics anyway and the idea of merging with the Republic looks at least a possible runner.
But install a Sinn Fein govt in Dublin right at the point they are losing ground in the North and I think all those bets are off. Unless SF decides now is the time to grow up and really cut off all links to organised crime in NI and elsewhere instead of just window dressing.
Plus, I'm not really sure what SF want out of govt - they seem to be running as the left-populist party on an anti-austerity wave, but apparently opinion polls also show their voters as being most against tax rises. It reminds me a bit of 5 Star in Italy, there comes a time when you can't promise more spend and less tax simultaneously and deliver while in govt | | | |
| Irish General Election on 15:38 - Feb 10 with 1347 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 11:59 - Feb 10 by ElHoop |
Look I'm most definitely not an expert on either the legislation or the emotion attached to the Ulster issue. But when you see the giant barracades/walls/partitions still in existence between communities in say Belfast, how can you be sure that any 'legislated' solution would be accepted by the minority? What do you do if they violently reject it? |
As an FYI, Ulster is not really the way to refer to the issue, as 3 counties of Ulster are in the Republic. Better to refer to them as Northern Ireland or the Six Counties |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 15:52 - Feb 10 with 1321 views | Boston |
Freedom for the People’s Republic of the Province of Meath. Ask yourself this question, what did the Plantagenets ever do for you? | |
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| Irish General Election on 16:07 - Feb 10 with 1290 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 15:52 - Feb 10 by Boston |
Freedom for the People’s Republic of the Province of Meath. Ask yourself this question, what did the Plantagenets ever do for you? |
Don't bring Meath into this  |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 16:46 - Feb 10 with 1227 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 15:34 - Feb 10 by CiderwithRsie |
Seems to me that this may make a united Ireland slightly less likely for the next few years.
The last couple of elections in NI (the General Election and the European and local elections last summer) showed a slight shift away from SF and the DUP towards the Alliance, the SDLP and "Official" Unionists. Combine that with Republicans being overwhelmingly anti-Brexit, some moderate Unionists feeling the same way, the future border in the Irish Sea, and a shift in the younger generation away from sectarian politics anyway and the idea of merging with the Republic looks at least a possible runner.
But install a Sinn Fein govt in Dublin right at the point they are losing ground in the North and I think all those bets are off. Unless SF decides now is the time to grow up and really cut off all links to organised crime in NI and elsewhere instead of just window dressing.
Plus, I'm not really sure what SF want out of govt - they seem to be running as the left-populist party on an anti-austerity wave, but apparently opinion polls also show their voters as being most against tax rises. It reminds me a bit of 5 Star in Italy, there comes a time when you can't promise more spend and less tax simultaneously and deliver while in govt |
The SDLP and Sinn Fein have more seats in Westminster than DUP/UUP. They closed the gap in the last MLA election in 2017. SF made a gain in 2019? They aren’t losing ground.
Now is the first time ever that republicans have had a majority in the MLA and Westminster. How is that losing ground? They have just gained a massive swing in the south of Ireland? What are you talking about losing ground?!?!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50766004
Left wing populists? Please do explain? What’s next the fascists against violence? The neoliberal socialists? | | | |
| Irish General Election on 17:02 - Feb 10 with 1199 views | ElHoop |
| Irish General Election on 15:38 - Feb 10 by robith |
As an FYI, Ulster is not really the way to refer to the issue, as 3 counties of Ulster are in the Republic. Better to refer to them as Northern Ireland or the Six Counties |
Oh fair enough thanks. I didn't know that!
I think that the most northern point of Ireland is not actually in Northern Ireland is it? | | | |
| Irish General Election on 17:09 - Feb 10 with 1186 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 17:02 - Feb 10 by ElHoop |
Oh fair enough thanks. I didn't know that!
I think that the most northern point of Ireland is not actually in Northern Ireland is it? |
We're like that! | |
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| Irish General Election on 17:50 - Feb 10 with 1125 views | Boston |
| Irish General Election on 16:46 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
The SDLP and Sinn Fein have more seats in Westminster than DUP/UUP. They closed the gap in the last MLA election in 2017. SF made a gain in 2019? They aren’t losing ground.
Now is the first time ever that republicans have had a majority in the MLA and Westminster. How is that losing ground? They have just gained a massive swing in the south of Ireland? What are you talking about losing ground?!?!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50766004
Left wing populists? Please do explain? What’s next the fascists against violence? The neoliberal socialists? |
He was referring to SF votes I believe. The piece you linked to actually states that the SF vote declined significantly. | |
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| Irish General Election on 17:56 - Feb 10 with 1113 views | BrianMcCarthy |
SF also got a hammering in the South in the last local elections.
This surge was them concentrating on housing and health and positioning themselves to pick up the votes from the right-wing parties that people blamed.
Their surge was over a short space of time, which leads me to wonder if their popularity will also be short-lived, at least at this level.
I'm not completely convinced that I woke up this morning in a Country where 45% of the electorate are now lefties.
But, for now, they have the votes on merit. | |
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| Irish General Election on 18:12 - Feb 10 with 1076 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 17:50 - Feb 10 by Boston |
He was referring to SF votes I believe. The piece you linked to actually states that the SF vote declined significantly. |
I wouldn't say 1.3% relative to their main rivals is significant, but I completely agree with your point that article says they lost vote share, but so did their rivals (who actually lost 2 seats) SF’s no of seats stayed the same. I was incorrect it was the SDLP who gained 2 seats, now that i've checked
I was really just taking issue with the original post as to comment that SF are losing ground on the day they have gained the most ground, possibly ever, is at best odd
Likewise a left wing populist party who’s supporters don’t want tax rises according to unspecified ‘opinion polls’ makes me thing someone doesn’t know what they are talking about (not you boston) [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:14]
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| Irish General Election on 18:21 - Feb 10 with 1071 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 17:50 - Feb 10 by Boston |
He was referring to SF votes I believe. The piece you linked to actually states that the SF vote declined significantly. |
Exactly my point Boston, thank you.
It also points out that the DUP vote share crashed and the Alliance Party (non-sectarian) was a strong 3rd (up from just under 8% in 2017 to almost 18% in 2019.) The rest of the votes went to the SDLP and UUP, both more moderate than SF or DUP.
So NI is moving - just a bit, but measurably - away from the republican/loyalist divide but the Republic has just voted heavily for a party wedded to that. Of course the common theme is that people are voting against the establishment - in NI that's DUP and SF but in the Republic SF are the alternative.
To my mind the easiest way to a united Ireland is if the north keeps going away from the DUP (hardline loyalist) and SF (scary) while the Republic has a moderate and halfway competent govt, so moderate Protestants start to think maybe that's the side their bread is buttered. A few months back that looked on the cards to me.
But if the Republic has a government with ex-IRA men in it (e.g. Dessie Ellis) or who shout "up the RA" when elected then no NI protestant will go near it. If they turn out to be clueless on the economics too then it's a double whammy, but that's yet to be seen. [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:30]
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| Irish General Election on 18:29 - Feb 10 with 1059 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 18:12 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
I wouldn't say 1.3% relative to their main rivals is significant, but I completely agree with your point that article says they lost vote share, but so did their rivals (who actually lost 2 seats) SF’s no of seats stayed the same. I was incorrect it was the SDLP who gained 2 seats, now that i've checked
I was really just taking issue with the original post as to comment that SF are losing ground on the day they have gained the most ground, possibly ever, is at best odd
Likewise a left wing populist party who’s supporters don’t want tax rises according to unspecified ‘opinion polls’ makes me thing someone doesn’t know what they are talking about (not you boston) [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:14]
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You need to read my post fully - I said they were losing ground in NI, and pointed out that them gaining ground in the Republic is a contrast. That's not "odd", it is simply the facts. The more they gain in the Republic, the more my point that it is a contrast stands.
Also: I'd take issue that "their rivals" also lost ground. The DUP are and have for years been in coalition with the DUP. To my mind they are two cheeks of the same sectarian/terrorist arse. They each need the other to frighten their own community to vote for them - "vote for us to save you from those bastard gunmen in the IRA/UDA - we might be bastards who kneecap you if you cross us, but at least we're your bastards."
It is the likes of the SDLP, the APNI and (to a slightly lesser extent) UUP who rejected terrorism that are their rivals. [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:44]
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| Irish General Election on 18:43 - Feb 10 with 1042 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 18:12 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
I wouldn't say 1.3% relative to their main rivals is significant, but I completely agree with your point that article says they lost vote share, but so did their rivals (who actually lost 2 seats) SF’s no of seats stayed the same. I was incorrect it was the SDLP who gained 2 seats, now that i've checked
I was really just taking issue with the original post as to comment that SF are losing ground on the day they have gained the most ground, possibly ever, is at best odd
Likewise a left wing populist party who’s supporters don’t want tax rises according to unspecified ‘opinion polls’ makes me thing someone doesn’t know what they are talking about (not you boston) [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:14]
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One last point:
Likewise a left wing populist party who’s supporters don’t want tax rises according to unspecified ‘opinion polls’ makes me thing someone doesn’t know what they are talking about (not you boston
SF is proposing a 22bn euro public spending surge over five years but also to cut USC (Irish National Insurance), abolish property tax and cut business tax. That's in their manifesto. I for one don't see how they can do it, but the fact remains that's what they are promising.
I don't see what's weird about people liking a party that promises to spend more without it costing the punters anything. The problem is whether or not they can do it. (Of course if they stay out of govt they can just shout the odds from the sidelines like before.) | | | |
| Irish General Election on 18:45 - Feb 10 with 1035 views | Boston |
| Irish General Election on 18:29 - Feb 10 by CiderwithRsie |
You need to read my post fully - I said they were losing ground in NI, and pointed out that them gaining ground in the Republic is a contrast. That's not "odd", it is simply the facts. The more they gain in the Republic, the more my point that it is a contrast stands.
Also: I'd take issue that "their rivals" also lost ground. The DUP are and have for years been in coalition with the DUP. To my mind they are two cheeks of the same sectarian/terrorist arse. They each need the other to frighten their own community to vote for them - "vote for us to save you from those bastard gunmen in the IRA/UDA - we might be bastards who kneecap you if you cross us, but at least we're your bastards."
It is the likes of the SDLP, the APNI and (to a slightly lesser extent) UUP who rejected terrorism that are their rivals. [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 18:44]
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These DUP's, separated at birth? | |
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| Irish General Election on 19:24 - Feb 10 with 995 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 18:45 - Feb 10 by Boston |
These DUP's, separated at birth? |
Shows how hard it is to tell 'em apart! (SF and DUP for anyone confused by my typo.) | | | |
| Irish General Election on 19:46 - Feb 10 with 965 views | Rangersw12 |
| Irish General Election on 17:47 - Feb 9 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Tá ár lá tagtha [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 21:38]
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Nm [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 21:52]
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